LAD⇄BOS⇄PIT

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$44.8M net +7.6

received −$15.2M−$15.2M ± $12M expected surplus · −$56.0M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 6.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2008 odds 11% → 23% (+12 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Manny RamirezOF·36y·R/R

−$14.9M−$14.9M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$56.0M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 6.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.1/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$112.0M net +0.1

received +$25.6M+$25.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$47.2M realized received 3.3 ± 3 expected · 5.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2008 odds 93% → 90% (-2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason BayOF·29y·R/R

+$25.5M+$25.5M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$47.2M 3.3± 3 exp WARrealized 5.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.64/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$67.2M net -7.7

received +$24.8M+$24.8M ± $57M expected surplus · −$20.0M realized received 8.1 ± 7 expected · -1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2008 odds 1% → 0% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andy LaRoche3B·24y·R/R

+$11.1M+$11.1M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 3.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

Composite #31.0 pedigree (Baseball America #31 (2008)) → 0.59/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bryan MorrisP·21y·L/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized -1.8

Prior

#26 overall draft pick → 0.46/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon Moss1B/OF·24y·L/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#238 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Craig HansenP·24y·R/R

−$0.9M−$0.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

Composite #54.0 pedigree (Baseball America #54 (2006)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.