Rosternomics
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Cubs CHC

201597–65 (0.599)Made Playoffs
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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2015, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$127M
Surplus $M
+25
Win %
0.599
TAB
+13.5
WAB
+14.5
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
48.3
Dead money %
38%
Depth Players
10.0
Dead WAR
-2.2

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2015 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

LMiguel Montero109
RDavid Ross59
RWelington Castillo⇄24
LKyle Schwarber21
RTaylor Teagarden6

1B

LAnthony Rizzo160
LChris Coghlan5
LMike Baxter2
RJavier Báez1
RKris Bryant1

2B

RAddison Russell86
RStarlin Castro38
BJonathan Herrera29
RJavier Báez17
LChris Coghlan15
LTommy La Stella14
BArismendy Alcántara8

3B

RKris Bryant144
BJonathan Herrera16
LTommy La Stella12
RJavier Báez11
RMike Olt⇄6
LChris Coghlan3
BArismendy Alcántara2

SS

RStarlin Castro109
RAddison Russell61
RJavier Báez8
BJonathan Herrera1

LF

LChris Coghlan99
RChris Denorfia43
LKyle Schwarber41
RMatt Szczur26
RKris Bryant8
LQuintin Berry2
RAustin Jackson⇄1
LMike Baxter1

CF

BDexter Fowler152
RAustin Jackson⇄24
RKris Bryant7
RChris Denorfia6
RMatt Szczur6
LQuintin Berry2

RF

RJorge Soler95
RChris Denorfia28
LChris Coghlan21
RJunior Lake⇄10
LMike Baxter10
RKris Bryant7
RAustin Jackson⇄5
LKyle Schwarber4
RMatt Szczur4
LQuintin Berry1

DH

LKyle Schwarber6
RJorge Soler1
RKris Bryant1
LMiguel Montero1
LMike Baxter1

Starters

RJake Arrieta7.3 WAR
LJon Lester4.5 WAR
RKyle Hendricks2.7 WAR
RJason Hammel2.3 WAR
LTravis Wood1.2 WAR
LClayton Richard0.4 WAR
RDan Haren⇄0.2 WAR
LTsuyoshi Wada0.2 WAR
RDallas Beeler0.1 WAR
RDonn Roach0.1 WAR

Bullpen

★ RHector Rondon30 sv
RPedro Strop28 h
RJustin Grimm15 h
RJason Motte9 h
LJames Russell8 h
LZac Rosscup6 h
LClayton Richard2 h
REdwin Jackson⇄0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; ⇄ marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Kris Bryant6.1
Jon Lester4.5
Miguel Montero3.1
Dexter Fowler3.0
Addison Russell2.6
Kyle Schwarber1.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Luis Valbuena3.2
Jeff Samardzija2.4
Emilio Bonifácio1.8
Carlos Villanueva1.1
Justin Ruggiano0.5
Darwin Barney0.4

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Cubs. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2015; everyone else is shown as a 2015 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Jake Arrieta 2015 +7.3 +145.5 3.6 +141.9 $0.5M 2.50× –
Kris Bryant 2015 +6.1 +69.7 0.5 +69.2 $0.1M 1.43× Free Agent · 2022–2028 · $26.0M AAV
Jon Lester 2015 +4.5 +78.3 20.0 +58.3 $4.5M 2.19× –
Anthony Rizzo 2015 +5.2 +57.2 5.0 +52.2 $1.0M 1.37× –
Kyle Hendricks 2015 +2.7 +42.7 0.5 +42.2 $0.2M 1.96× –
Chris Coghlan 2015 +3.1 +40.2 2.5 +37.7 $0.8M 1.60× –
Dexter Fowler 2015 +3.0 +37.9 9.5 +28.4 $3.2M 1.60× –
Héctor Rondón 2015 +1.6 +24.6 0.5 +24.0 $0.3M 1.95× –
Addison Russell 2015 +2.6 +22.0 0.5 +21.6 $0.2M 1.07× –
Jason Hammel 2015 +2.3 +27.6 9.0 +18.6 $3.9M 1.49× –
Kyle Schwarber 2015 +1.8 +17.4 0.2 +17.2 $0.1M 1.22× Free Agent · 2026–2030 · $30.0M AAV
Miguel Montero 2015 +3.1 +24.8 12.0 +12.8 $3.9M 1.00× –
Pedro Strop 2015 +1.0 +10.7 2.5 +8.2 $2.5M 1.34× –
Justin Grimm 2015 +0.6 +6.3 0.5 +5.8 $0.9M 1.34× –
Clayton Richard 2015 +0.4 +2.3 0.2 +2.1 $0.5M 0.67× –
Javier Báez 2015 +0.4 +1.9 0.1 +1.8 $0.2M 0.56× Free Agent · 2022–2027 · $23.3M AAV
Donn Roach 2015 +0.1 +0.9 0.0 +0.9 $0.2M 1.02× –
Dallas Beeler 2015 +0.1 +1.2 0.5 +0.7 $3.5M 1.02× –
Travis Wood 2015 +1.2 +6.2 5.7 +0.5 $4.9M 0.67× –
Chris Denorfia 2015 +0.4 +3.0 2.6 +0.4 $5.8M 0.83× –
Gonzalez Germen↔ 2015 +0.1 +0.4 0.0 +0.4 $0.5M 0.67× –
Tommy La Stella 2015 +0.2 +0.9 0.5 +0.4 $2.6M 0.56× –
Quintin Berry 2015 +0.0 +0.3 0.1 +0.2 $2.4M 0.83× –
Neil Ramírez 2015 +0.1 +0.6 0.5 +0.1 $4.6M 0.67× –
James Russell 2015 +0.0 +0.2 0.3 -0.1 $7.2M 0.67× –
Yoervis Medina↔ 2015 -0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 – 0.67× –
Mike Baxter 2015 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.5 – 0.83× –
Mike Olt↔ 2015 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 – 0.58× –
Taylor Teagarden 2015 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 – 0.52× –
Fernando Rodney↔ 2015 +0.1 +0.7 1.4 -0.7 $21.6M 1.34× –
Welington Castillo↔ 2015 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 -0.8 – 0.52× –
Jorge Soler 2015 +0.3 +1.7 2.7 -1.0 $10.5M 0.83× Free Agent · 2024–2026 · $14.0M AAV
Matt Szczur 2015 -0.1 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 – 0.83× –
Junior Lake↔ 2015 -0.2 -1.2 0.1 -1.3 – 0.83× –
Austin Jackson↔ 2015 +0.0 +0.2 1.6 -1.4 $54.0M 0.83× –
Brian Schlitter 2015 -0.3 -1.4 0.1 -1.4 – 0.67× –
David Ross 2015 +0.3 +1.1 2.5 -1.4 $9.5M 0.52× –
Dan Haren↔ 2015 +0.2 +1.7 3.3 -1.6 $15.7M 1.02× –
Phil Coke↔ 2015 +0.1 +0.3 2.0 -1.7 $31.2M 0.67× –
Arismendy Alcántara 2015 -0.3 -1.4 0.5 -1.9 – 0.56× –
Jonathan Herrera 2015 -0.2 -1.1 0.9 -2.0 – 0.56× –
Zac Rosscup 2015 -0.4 -2.0 0.4 -2.4 – 0.67× –
Tommy Hunter↔ 2015 -0.2 -1.1 1.5 -2.6 – 0.67× –
Tsuyoshi Wada 2015 +0.2 +1.3 4.0 -2.7 $24.7M 1.02× –
Starlin Castro 2015 +0.6 +2.9 6.9 -4.0 $11.7M 0.61× –
Trevor Cahill↔ 2015 +0.2 +0.9 5.1 -4.2 $29.6M 0.67× –
Edwin Jackson↔ 2015 +0.3 +1.6 6.9 -5.3 $23.1M 0.67× –
Rafael Soriano 2015 -0.2 -1.2 4.1 -5.3 – 0.67× –
Jason Motte 2015 +0.4 +4.5 4.5 +0.0 $10.6M 1.34× –
Carl Edwards Jr. 2015 +0.0 +0.0 – – – 0.67× –
Total—+48.3+628.1127.2+500.9—

Trades

Every graded 2015 deal involving the Cubs — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 11 total.

2015 · NYY / CHC
NYY · Brian Cashman +$31.2M
Starlin Castro
CHC · Theo Epstein −$31.2M
Adam Warren, Brendan Ryan
NYY came out ahead by $31.2M
2015 · SEA / CHC
SEA · Jeff Kingston +$9.6M
cash / PTBNL
CHC · Theo Epstein −$9.6M
Austin Jackson
SEA came out ahead by $9.6M
2015 · MIA / CHC
MIA · Mike Berger +$13.6M
Ivan Pineyro, Elliot Soto
CHC · Theo Epstein −$13.6M
Dan Haren
MIA came out ahead by $13.6M
2015 · CHC / SEA
CHC · Theo Epstein +$0.0M
Lars Huijer
SEA · Jeff Kingston +$0.0M
Mike Kickham
Even trade
2015 · CHC / ANA
CHC · Theo Epstein +$0.0M
Manuel Rondon
ANA · Bill Stoneman +$0.0M
Rafael Lopez
Even trade
2015 · COL / CHC
COL · Jeff Bridich +$3.2M
Wander Cabrera
CHC · Theo Epstein −$3.2M
Rex Brothers
COL came out ahead by $3.2M
2015 · CHC / SEA
CHC · Theo Epstein +$3.2M
Yoervis Medina
SEA · Jeff Kingston −$3.2M
Welington Castillo
CHC came out ahead by $3.2M
2015 · BAL / CHC
BAL · Dan Duquette +$0.8M
Junior Lake
CHC · Theo Epstein −$0.8M
Tommy Hunter
BAL came out ahead by $0.8M
2015 · TEX / CHC
TEX · Jon Daniels +$1.6M
Frandy De La Rosa
CHC · Theo Epstein −$1.6M
Spencer Patton
TEX came out ahead by $1.6M
2015 · SEA / CHC
SEA · Jeff Kingston +$7.2M
cash / PTBNL
CHC · Theo Epstein −$7.2M
Fernando Rodney
SEA came out ahead by $7.2M
2015 · CHC / HOU
CHC · Theo Epstein +$69.6M
Dexter Fowler
HOU · Jeff Luhnow −$69.6M
Luis Valbuena, Dan Straily
CHC came out ahead by $69.6M

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$127.3M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jon Lester318.075$20.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero318.031$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Hammel327.153$9.0MFREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson319.070$6.9MFREE AGENT
Jason Motte336.027$4.5MFREE AGENT
Rafael Soriano3512.057$4.1MFREE AGENT
Dan Haren3410.154$3.3MFREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia347.041$2.6MFREE AGENT
David Ross3813.001$2.5MFREE AGENT
Phil Coke326.028$2.0MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney3811.137$1.4MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Dexter Fowler295.168$9.5MFREE AGENT
Starlin Castro254.150$6.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Wood284.004$5.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill275.160$5.1MFREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta293.145$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop303.156$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan304.148$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Jackson285.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter285.090$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Herrera304.101$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo283.009$458kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell295.000$327kFREE AGENT
Clayton Richard315.070$222kFREE AGENT
Taylor Teagarden314.007$80kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Anthony Rizzo252.168$5.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tsuyoshi Wada341.145$4.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Soler230.033$2.7MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Rondón272.000$544kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Grimm261.170$532kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Ramírez260.158$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy La Stella261.000$513kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks250.080$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arismendy Alcántara230.082$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Szczur250.043$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Beeler260.050$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kris Bryant230.000$471kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Russell210.000$460kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup270.123$435kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber220.000$233kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoervis Medina262.079$155kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Olt261.030$104kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Quintin Berry301.018$92kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Báez220.055$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Lake251.073$75kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schlitter292.029$63kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baxter302.145$42kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gonzalez Germen271.135$36kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donn Roach251.066$19kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2015 acquisition stacked onto Cubs's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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