BOS⇄CLE

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$6.4M net +2.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2005 odds 49% → 50% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex Cora2B/SS·29y·L/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.83/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$6.4M net -2.1

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 2.6 ± 3 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2005 odds 89% → 88% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ramón Vázquez3B/SS·28y·L/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.86/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.