ATL⇄BOS

ATLATL Frank Wren net +$20.0M net +0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2008 odds 10% → 11% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis Sumoza

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$20.0M net -0.6

received −$8.8M−$8.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$20.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2008 odds 91% → 90% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark KotsayOF·32y·L/L

−$8.6M−$8.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$20.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.