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July 31, 2011 · 3-team trade

LAD⇄BOS⇄SEA

BOS won this trade +$10.4M surplus LAD won this trade +1.1 WAR
LADLAD Ned Colletti net +$2.4M net +1.1
received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $32M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2011 odds 34% → 39% (+5.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Tim FederowiczC·23y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4
Prior
#232 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Stephen FifeP·24y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3
Prior
#85 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Juan Rodriguez
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)
BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$10.4M net +0.8
received +$36.0M+$36.0M ± $46M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 5.3 ± 6 expected · 0.7 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2011 odds 89% → 90% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Érik BédardP·32y·L/L
+$23.8M+$23.8M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 2.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 4.0/yr over 1.1 season
Talent
2.05/yr blended
Horizon
1.0 control yr
Josh FieldsP·25y·R/R
+$11.8M+$11.8M± $45M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.2± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#18 overall draft pick → 0.58/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.58/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$12.8M net -1.9
received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · -1.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2011 odds 2% → 1% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Trayvon RobinsonOF·23y·B/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -1.2
Prior
#316 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Chih Hsien Chiang
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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