RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.4× league · TAB +12.6
+12.6TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+8.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-2.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
26%dead money %8th/30
0.586win %4th/30
51.0roster fWAR1st/30
-7surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$124Mpayroll $M6th/30

2008: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCoco Crisp 114GJacoby Ellsbury 66GJonathan Van Every 1G
LFJason Bay 154GJacoby Ellsbury 58GJeff Bailey 5G
RFJ.D. Drew 106GJacoby Ellsbury 36GMark Kotsay 19G
SSJulio Lugo 81GAlex Cora 69GJed Lowrie 49G
2BDustin Pedroia 157GAlex Cora 7GJed Lowrie 3G
3BMike Lowell 110GJed Lowrie 45GKevin Youkilis 36G
1BKevin Youkilis 125GSean Casey 45GJeff Bailey 12G
STARTERSJon Lester 4.2WARJosh Beckett 4.2WARDaisuke Matsuzaka 2.7WARTim Wakefield 1.1WARClay Buchholz 0.5WAR
CJason Varitek 131GKevin Cash 57GDavid Ross 54G
DHDavid Ortiz 109GManny Ramirez 31GSean Casey 13G
BULLPEN★ Jonathan Papelbon 41svHideki Okajima 23hManny Delcarmen 18hJavier López 10hDavid Aardsma 4hMike Timlin 0hChris Smith 0hDavid Pauley 0h
CJason Varitek 131 · Kevin Cash 57 · David Ross 54
1BKevin Youkilis 125 · Sean Casey 45 · Jeff Bailey 12
2BDustin Pedroia 157 · Alex Cora 7 · Jed Lowrie 3
3BMike Lowell 110 · Jed Lowrie 45 · Kevin Youkilis 36
SSJulio Lugo 81 · Alex Cora 69 · Jed Lowrie 49
LFJason Bay 154 · Jacoby Ellsbury 58 · Jeff Bailey 5
CFCoco Crisp 114 · Jacoby Ellsbury 66 · Jonathan Van Every 1
RFJ.D. Drew 106 · Jacoby Ellsbury 36 · Mark Kotsay 19
DHDavid Ortiz 109 · Manny Ramirez 31 · Sean Casey 13
SPJon Lester 4.2 · Josh Beckett 4.2 · Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.7 · Tim Wakefield 1.1 · Clay Buchholz 0.5
BP★ Jonathan Papelbon 41 · Hideki Okajima 23 · Manny Delcarmen 18 · Javier López 10 · David Aardsma 4 · Mike Timlin 0 · Chris Smith 0 · David Pauley 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dustin Pedroia 24 pre-arb 1576.3 0.5 +14.0
Kevin Youkilis 29 arb 1456.2 3.0 +11.1
Josh Beckett 28 FA-elig 274.2 10.2 -0.6
Jon Lester 24 pre-arb 334.2 0.4 +9.2
Jacoby Ellsbury 24 pre-arb 1454.2 0.4 +9.1
J.D. Drew 32 FA-elig 1094.1 14.0 -4.7
Manny Ramirez↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 1003.0 12.4 -5.6
Jonathan Papelbon 27 arb 672.8 0.8 +5.6
Daisuke Matsuzaka 27 pre-arb 292.7 8.3 -2.1
Mike Lowell 34 FA-elig 1132.2 12.5 -7.6
David Ortiz 32 FA-elig 1091.7 13.0 -9.0
Coco Crisp 28 FA-elig 1181.7 5.1 -1.3
Jed Lowrie 24 – 811.6 0.4 +3.2
Jason Bay↔ PIT 29 arb 491.2 1.9 +0.8
Manny Delcarmen 26 arb 731.1 0.4 +2.1
Tim Wakefield 41 FA-elig 301.1 4.0 -1.6
Hideki Okajima 32 pre-arb 641.0 1.3 +1.1
Alex Cora 32 FA-elig 750.6 2.0 -0.7
Bartolo Colon 35 – 70.5 1.2 -0.1
Brandon Moss↔ PIT 24 – 340.5 0.2 +0.9
Clay Buchholz 23 pre-arb 160.5 0.4 +0.6
Paul Byrd↔ CLE 37 FA-elig 80.4 2.0 -1.1
Julio Lugo 32 FA-elig 820.4 9.2 -8.4
Kevin Cash 30 FA-elig 610.3 0.4 +0.3
Michael Bowden 21 – 10.2 0.4 +0.1
Jeff Bailey 29 – 270.2 – –
Devern Hansack 30 – 40.1 – –
Justin Masterson 23 – 360.1 0.4 -0.1
Charlie Zink 28 – 10.1 – –
Javier López 30 arb 700.1 0.8 -0.6
Craig Hansen↔ PIT 24 – 320.1 – –
David Ross↔ CIN 31 FA-elig 80.0 0.3 -0.3
George Kottaras 25 – 3-0.0 – –
Chris Carter 25 – 9-0.0 – –
Julian Tavarez↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 9-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Jonathan Van Every 28 – 11-0.0 – –
Bryan Corey↔ SDP 34 FA-elig 7-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Sean Casey 33 FA-elig 69-0.1 0.8 -0.9
Joe Thurston 28 – 4-0.1 – –
David Pauley 25 – 6-0.1 – –
David Aardsma 26 arb 47-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Kyle Snyder 30 arb 2-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Gil Velazquez 28 – 3-0.2 – –
Mark Kotsay↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 22-0.3 1.4 -2.0
Chris Smith 27 – 12-0.3 – –
Jason Varitek 36 FA-elig 131-0.3 10.4 -11.2
Mike Timlin 42 FA-elig 47-0.5 3.0 -4.0

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Jed Lowrie1.6
Jason Bay1.2
Bartolo Colon0.5
Paul Byrd0.4
Michael Bowden0.2
Justin Masterson0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Curt Schilling2.3
Brendan Donnelly0.5
Kason Gabbard0.4
Eric Gagne0.3
Bobby Kielty0.1
David Murphy0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$123.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
J.D. Drew3210.000$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3211.000$13.0M$13.0M$13.0M$12.5M$14.6M$14.0M$15.0M
Mike Lowell3410.000$12.5M$12.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Manny Ramirez3615.000$12.4MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek3611.000$10.4M$5.0M$3.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett287.000$10.2M$11.2M$12.1M$17.0M$12.8MFREE AGENT
Julio Lugo328.000$9.2M$5.4MFREE AGENT
Coco Crisp286.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield4116.000$4.0M$4.0M$3.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Timlin4217.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Cora3210.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Byrd3713.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3211.000$1.4M$896kFREE AGENT
Bartolo Colon3511.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Sean Casey3311.000$800kFREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez3515.000$666kFREE AGENT
Kevin Cash306.000$400kFREE AGENT
David Ross316.000$337kFREE AGENT$3.1M$3.1M
Bryan Corey3410.000$62kFREE AGENT
Joe Thurston286.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Kevin Youkilis294.000$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bay295.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Javier López305.000$840kFREE AGENT
Kyle Snyder305.000$835kFREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon273.000$775kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Delcarmen263.000$421kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Aardsma264.000$403kARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Hansen243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Daisuke Matsuzaka271.000$8.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima321.000$1.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia242.000$457kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Lester242.000$422kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury241.000$406kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz231.000$396kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie240.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Masterson230.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden210.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Moss241.000$168kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bailey29–—
Chris Smith270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gil Velazquez280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Pauley250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Van Every280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Zink28–—
Devern Hansack30–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.