CHC⇄COL

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$3.2M net +0.7

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $25M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2017 odds 61% → 64% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eddie ButlerP·26y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

Composite #77.0 pedigree (Baseball America #77 (2015)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Jeff Bridich net −$3.2M net -0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2017 odds 15% → 13% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

James Farris

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.