SDP⇄CHC

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$0.0M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2017 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt SzczurOF·27y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$0.0M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2017 odds 67% → 64% (-3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin HancockP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#293 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.