RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.69× league · TAB +0.9
+0.9TAB — talent above budget14th/30
-4.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
24%dead money %7th/30
0.519win %14th/30
41.6roster fWAR11th/30
-82surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$218Mpayroll $M1st/30

Roster

CFAlbert Almora Jr. 125GJason Heyward 84GIan Happ 13G
LFKyle Schwarber 140GKris Bryant 23GTony Kemp 20G
RFNick Castellanos 137GJason Heyward 105GKris Bryant 27G
SSJavier Báez 129GAddison Russell 21GNico Hoerner 17G
2BAddison Russell 63GDavid Bote 50GDaniel Descalso 45G
3BKris Bryant 115GDavid Bote 67GIan Happ 8G
1BAnthony Rizzo 146GVictor Caratini 23GJonathan Lucroy 9G
STARTERSKyle Hendricks 4.2WARJose Quintana 3.2WARJon Lester 3.1WARCole Hamels 2.5WARYu Darvish 2.3WAR
CWillson Contreras 99GJonathan Lucroy 87GVictor Caratini 59G
DHKris Bryant 3GJavier Báez 2GDaniel Descalso 2G
BULLPEN★ Pedro Strop 10svBrandon Kintzler 17hKyle Ryan 14hSteve Cishek 11hBrad Wieck 9hDavid Phelps 5hRowan Wick 5hCraig Kimbrel 0h
CWillson Contreras 99 · Jonathan Lucroy 87 · Victor Caratini 59
1BAnthony Rizzo 146 · Victor Caratini 23 · Jonathan Lucroy 9
2BAddison Russell 63 · David Bote 50 · Daniel Descalso 45
3BKris Bryant 115 · David Bote 67 · Ian Happ 8
SSJavier Báez 129 · Addison Russell 21 · Nico Hoerner 17
LFKyle Schwarber 140 · Kris Bryant 23 · Tony Kemp 20
CFAlbert Almora Jr. 125 · Jason Heyward 84 · Ian Happ 13
RFNick Castellanos 137 · Jason Heyward 105 · Kris Bryant 27
DHKris Bryant 3 · Javier Báez 2 · Daniel Descalso 2
SPKyle Hendricks 4.2 · Jose Quintana 3.2 · Jon Lester 3.1 · Cole Hamels 2.5 · Yu Darvish 2.3
BP★ Pedro Strop 10 · Brandon Kintzler 17 · Kyle Ryan 14 · Steve Cishek 11 · Brad Wieck 9 · David Phelps 5 · Rowan Wick 5 · Craig Kimbrel 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Javier Báez 26 arb 1385.6 5.2 +13.1
Kris Bryant 27 arb 1474.4 12.9 +1.4
Kyle Hendricks 29 arb 314.2 7.4 +6.3
Anthony Rizzo 29 FA-elig 1463.6 12.3 -0.4
Jose Quintana 30 FA-elig 323.2 10.5 -0.1
Jon Lester 35 FA-elig 323.1 27.5 -17.2
Cole Hamels 35 FA-elig 272.5 20.0 -11.8
Willson Contreras 27 arb 1052.4 0.7 +7.3
Jason Heyward 29 FA-elig 1472.4 20.0 -12.1
Yu Darvish 32 FA-elig 312.3 20.0 -12.4
Kyle Schwarber 26 arb 1552.1 3.4 +3.6
Nick Castellanos↔ DET 27 FA-elig 511.8 3.4 +2.5
David Bote 26 pre-arb 1271.7 0.6 +5.0
Victor Caratini 25 pre-arb 951.1 0.6 +3.1
Ian Happ 24 pre-arb 581.0 0.6 +2.8
Addison Russell 25 arb 821.0 3.4 -0.3
Brandon Kintzler 34 FA-elig 620.9 5.0 -2.2
Rowan Wick 26 pre-arb 310.8 0.3 +2.2
Tyler Chatwood 29 FA-elig 410.7 12.5 -10.1
Kyle Ryan 27 arb 730.7 0.6 +1.6
Nico Hoerner 22 – 200.4 0.1 +1.3
Alec Mills 27 pre-arb 90.4 0.1 +1.0
Brad Brach↔ NYM 33 FA-elig 430.3 1.3 -0.3
Brad Wieck↔ SDP 27 pre-arb 140.2 0.1 +0.7
Steve Cishek 33 FA-elig 700.2 6.5 -5.9
Robel García 26 – 310.1 0.2 +0.2
David Phelps↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 240.1 1.5 -1.2
Danny Hultzen 29 – 60.1 0.1 +0.1
Pedro Strop 34 FA-elig 500.0 6.2 -6.1
Duane Underwood Jr. 24 – 120.0 – –
Tim Collins 29 FA-elig 9-0.0 0.8 -0.9
James Norwood 25 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Ben Zobrist 38 FA-elig 47-0.0 12.5 -12.6
Xavier Cedeño 32 FA-elig 5-0.0 0.9 -1.0
Mark Zagunis 26 pre-arb 30-0.1 0.6 -0.7
Carl Edwards Jr.↔ SDP 27 arb 20-0.1 1.4 -1.6
Randy Rosario↔ KCR 25 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.4 -0.6
James Adduci 34 – 2-0.1 – –
Tony Barnette 35 arb 2-0.1 0.8 -1.1
Allen Webster 29 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Taylor Davis 29 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Dillon Maples 27 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Carlos González↔ CLE 33 FA-elig 15-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Derek Holland↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 20-0.2 2.5 -3.1
Martín Maldonado↔ HOU 32 FA-elig 4-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Tony Kemp↔ HOU 27 arb 44-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Jonathan Lucroy↔ ANA 33 FA-elig 27-0.2 0.9 -1.7
Adbert Alzolay 24 – 4-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Mike Montgomery↔ KCR 29 arb 20-0.5 1.5 -3.2
Albert Almora Jr. 25 arb 130-0.6 0.6 -2.5
Craig Kimbrel 31 FA-elig 23-1.1 10.0 -13.5
Daniel Descalso 32 FA-elig 82-1.3 1.5 -5.6

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Nick Castellanos1.8
Rowan Wick0.8
Kyle Ryan0.7
Nico Hoerner0.4
Brad Brach0.3
Brad Wieck0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Jesse Chavez1.1
Justin Wilson0.6
Jorge De La Rosa0.5
Daniel Murphy0.3
Anthony Bass0.2
Tommy La Stella0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$218.4M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Jon Lester3512.075$27.5MFREE AGENT
Cole Hamels3512.143$20.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Heyward299.000$20.0MFREE AGENT
Yu Darvish327.000$20.0MFREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist3811.134$12.5MFREE AGENT
Tyler Chatwood297.039$12.5MFREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo296.168$12.3MFREE AGENT
Jose Quintana306.133$10.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel318.066$10.0MFREE AGENT
Steve Cishek337.143$6.5MFREE AGENT
Pedro Strop347.156$6.2MFREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler347.003$5.0MFREE AGENT
Derek Holland3210.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Daniel Descalso328.016$1.5MFREE AGENT
David Phelps326.156$1.5MFREE AGENT
Brad Brach336.063$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy338.136$896kFREE AGENT
Tim Collins298.000$850kFREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado326.156$95kFREE AGENT
Carlos González3311.000$33kFREE AGENT
James Adduci346.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Kris Bryant273.171$12.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks294.081$7.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Báez263.089$5.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Russell253.167$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber263.086$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos275.029$3.4MFREE AGENT
Mike Montgomery293.089$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.274.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño325.003$900kFREE AGENT
Tony Barnette353.000$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Almora Jr.253.000$616kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Hultzen294.023$69kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Willson Contreras272.108$684kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Webster290.170$619kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Happ241.141$604kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Caratini251.051$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bote260.100$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Zagunis260.044$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Ryan271.139$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Rosario250.132$386kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowan Wick260.031$257kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Kemp271.098$233kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Davis290.058$207kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robel García260.000$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Maples270.072$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Mills270.052$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Norwood250.044$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wieck270.020$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner220.000$63kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adbert Alzolay240.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Duane Underwood Jr.241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.