CHC⇄ARI

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2014 odds 21% → 21% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Blake CooperP·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#361 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Kevin Towers net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2014 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett JacksonOF·25y·L/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

Composite #32.0 pedigree (Baseball America #32 (2012)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.