NYY⇄CHC

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$4.0M net +0.9

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $7M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.1 ± 1 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2013 odds 4% → 5% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alfonso Soriano2B/OF·37y·R/R

+$7.8M+$7.8M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.93/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$4.0M net -0.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2013 odds 4% → 2% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Corey BlackP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#157 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.