RRosternomics
Dana Brown

Dana Brown

★ active

Born 1967 · age 59

General manager for the Astros (2023–present).

4 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs2
Record312–272
Win %0.534
+0.7GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±6.560th/195 execs
7.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)46th/195 execs
-4.4Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)49th/195 execs
29%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)54th/195 execs
$39MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track26th/195 execs
$8MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)72nd/195 execs
$6MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade66th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees136th/195 execs
+9.4TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total54th/195 execs
+9.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)49th/195 execs
3.70Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)23rd/195 execs
-247Roster surplus $M165th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Astros GM 2023–present 3 +9.3 +3.11 +9.4 -49.4 +3.2 +3.9 -4.3 +0.0 3.70 0.534 2 -247
Career total (1985+ data) 4 +9.3 +9.4 -49.4 +3.2 +3.9 -4.3 +0.0 3.70 0.534 2 -247

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+3.2
Trade+3.9
Free agency-4.3
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 17% draft · 69% FA · 14% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Dana Brown's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 66 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Isaac Paredes 3B HOU Trade 2025 2 +4.7 +2.3 8.9
Víctor Caratini C HOU Free agency 2023 2 +2.7 +1.4 12.7
Christian Walker 1B HOU Free agency 2024 2 +2.7 +1.3 4.1
Josh Hader P HOU Free agency 2024 3 +2.6 +0.9 6.3
Steven Okert P HOU Free agency 2024 2 +2.5 +1.2 5.7
Cam Smith OF HOU Trade 2024 2 +2.1 +1.1
Spencer Arrighetti P HOU Draft 2024 2 +1.9 +1.0
Peter Lambert P HOU Free agency 2025 1 +1.4 +1.4 0.6
Yusei Kikuchi P HOU Trade 2024 1 +1.4 +1.4 9.4
Bennett Sousa P HOU Trade 2023 2 +1.3 +0.6 1.3
J. P. France P HOU Draft 2023 2 +1.2 +0.6
Bryan King P HOU Draft 2024 3 +1.2 +0.4
Carlos Correa SS HOU Trade 2025 9 +1.1 +0.1
Brandon Walter P HOU Free agency 2024 1 +0.8 +0.8 3.0
Enyel De Los Santos P HOU Free agency 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.3
Shawn Dubin P HOU Draft 2023 2 +0.4 +0.2
Corey Julks OF HOU Draft 2023 1 +0.4 +0.4
Jason Alexander P HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.8
AJ Blubaugh P HOU Draft 2025 2 +0.3 +0.2
Zach Cole OF HOU Draft 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3
Jason Heyward OF HOU Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 2.2
Caleb Ferguson P HOU Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.8
Nick Allen SS HOU Trade 2026 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.1
Tatsuya Imai P HOU Draft 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2
Joey Loperfido OF HOU Trade 2026 2 +0.2 +0.1
Brice Matthews 2B/OF HOU Draft 2025 2 +0.2 +0.1
Tayler Scott P HOU Free agency 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.3
LaMonte Wade 1B/OF HOU Free agency 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Ramón Urías 3B HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Hayden Wesneski P HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.7
Kai-Wei Teng P HOU Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Nate Pearson P HOU Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
César Salazar C HOU Draft 2023 2 +0.1 +0.0
Logan VanWey P HOU Draft 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1
Ben Gamel OF HOU Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.7
Cody Bolton P HOU Free agency 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Dylan Coleman P HOU Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Luis Contreras P HOU Draft 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0
Kenedy Corona OF HOU Draft 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0
Miguel Díaz P HOU Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Luis Guillorme 2B/3B HOU Free agency 2025 -0.0
Zack Short SS HOU Free agency 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Wander Suero P HOU Free agency 2023 +0.0
Jordan Weems P HOU Free agency 2025 -0.0
Forrest Whitley P HOU Draft 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0
Craig Kimbrel P HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Matt Gage P HOU Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Zach Dezenzo OF HOU Draft 2024 2 -0.1 -0.0
Blair Henley P HOU Draft 2024 -0.1
Cooper Hummel DH/OF HOU Free agency 2025 -0.1
Daniel Johnson OF HOU Free agency 2026 -0.1
Christian Roa P HOU Free agency 2025 -0.1
John Rooney P HOU Trade 2025 -0.1
Christian Vázquez C HOU Free agency 2026 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Taylor Trammell OF HOU Trade 2026 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Joel Kuhnel P HOU Trade 2024 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Grae Kessinger 2B/3B HOU Draft 2023 1 -0.2 -0.2
Jake Bloss P HOU Draft 2024 -0.3
Nick Hernandez P HOU Trade 2024 -0.3
Bligh Madris 1B/OF HOU Trade 2023 -0.3
Jacob Melton OF HOU Draft 2025 -0.3
Brendan Rodgers 2B HOU Free agency 2025 -0.3
Colton Gordon P HOU Draft 2025 1 -0.4 -0.4
Pedro León OF HOU Draft 2024 -0.5
Ryan Weiss P HOU Draft 2026 -0.6
Shay Whitcomb 3B HOU Draft 2024 -0.8

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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