RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.31× league · TAB +6.2
+6.2TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+6.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-1.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
17%dead money %2nd/30
0.568win %7th/30
43.9roster fWAR7th/30
-24surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$172Mpayroll $M7th/30

2017: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFAlbert Almora Jr. 104GJon Jay 54GIan Happ 54G
LFKyle Schwarber 110GJon Jay 64GBen Zobrist 36G
RFJason Heyward 120GBen Zobrist 32GJon Jay 19G
SSAddison Russell 101GJavier Báez 73GMike Freeman 10G
2BBen Zobrist 81GJavier Báez 80GIan Happ 44G
3BKris Bryant 144GTommy La Stella 18GJavier Báez 8G
1BAnthony Rizzo 157GAlex Avila 19GVictor Caratini 8G
STARTERSJon Lester 3.2WARJake Arrieta 2.6WARKyle Hendricks 2.3WARJose Quintana 2.0WARMike Montgomery 1.5WAR
CWillson Contreras 108GAlex Avila 78GRené Rivera 71G
DHKyle Schwarber 8GJon Jay 2G
BULLPEN★ Wade Davis 32svCarl Edwards Jr. 25hPedro Strop 21hKoji Uehara 14hBrian Duensing 13hHéctor Rondón 10hJustin Wilson 9hJustin Grimm 4h
CWillson Contreras 108 · Alex Avila 78 · René Rivera 71
1BAnthony Rizzo 157 · Alex Avila 19 · Victor Caratini 8
2BBen Zobrist 81 · Javier Báez 80 · Ian Happ 44
3BKris Bryant 144 · Tommy La Stella 18 · Javier Báez 8
SSAddison Russell 101 · Javier Báez 73 · Mike Freeman 10
LFKyle Schwarber 110 · Jon Jay 64 · Ben Zobrist 36
CFAlbert Almora Jr. 104 · Jon Jay 54 · Ian Happ 54
RFJason Heyward 120 · Ben Zobrist 32 · Jon Jay 19
DHKyle Schwarber 8 · Jon Jay 2
SPJon Lester 3.2 · Jake Arrieta 2.6 · Kyle Hendricks 2.3 · Jose Quintana 2.0 · Mike Montgomery 1.5
BP★ Wade Davis 32 · Carl Edwards Jr. 25 · Pedro Strop 21 · Koji Uehara 14 · Brian Duensing 13 · Héctor Rondón 10 · Justin Wilson 9 · Justin Grimm 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kris Bryant 25 pre-arb 1517.0 1.1 +22.6
Anthony Rizzo 27 FA-elig 1574.4 7.0 +7.9
Jon Lester 33 FA-elig 323.2 25.0 -14.3
Javier Báez 24 arb 1453.1 0.6 +9.9
Jake Arrieta 31 FA-elig 322.6 15.6 -7.0
Kyle Hendricks 27 arb 252.3 0.8 +7.0
Willson Contreras 25 pre-arb 1172.3 0.5 +7.2
Addison Russell 23 pre-arb 1102.3 0.6 +7.0
Jose Quintana↔ CHW 28 arb 142.0 3.1 +3.6
Ian Happ 22 – 1151.8 0.4 +5.8
Mike Montgomery 27 pre-arb 441.5 0.6 +4.4
Jon Jay 32 FA-elig 1411.2 8.0 -4.1
Wade Davis 31 FA-elig 591.1 10.0 -6.2
Kyle Schwarber 24 pre-arb 1291.1 0.6 +3.2
Albert Almora Jr. 23 pre-arb 1321.1 0.6 +3.1
Jason Heyward 27 FA-elig 1261.0 28.2 -24.8
Pedro Strop 32 FA-elig 691.0 5.5 -2.1
Carl Edwards Jr. 25 pre-arb 741.0 0.6 +2.7
Tommy La Stella 28 – 730.8 0.3 +2.2
Brian Duensing 34 FA-elig 680.7 2.0 +0.5
René Rivera↔ NYM 33 FA-elig 200.7 0.5 +1.8
Koji Uehara 42 FA-elig 490.6 6.0 -3.9
Miguel Montero↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 440.6 8.1 -6.1
John Lackey 38 FA-elig 320.6 16.0 -14.1
Eddie Butler 26 pre-arb 130.5 0.2 +1.6
Héctor Rondón 29 arb 610.4 5.8 -4.6
Alex Avila↔ DET 30 FA-elig 350.3 0.6 +0.4
Brett Anderson↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 60.2 1.6 -0.8
Justin Wilson↔ DET 29 arb 230.2 1.0 -0.4
Ben Zobrist 36 FA-elig 1280.1 16.5 -16.1
Dillon Maples 25 – 60.1 0.1 +0.2
Victor Caratini 23 – 310.1 0.2 +0.0
Pierce Johnson 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Zac Rosscup↔ COL 29 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Rob Zastryzny 25 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Leonys Martin↔ SEA 29 FA-elig 15-0.0 1.5 -1.6
Jen-Ho Tseng 22 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Jack Leathersich↔ PIT 26 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Seth Frankoff 28 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Dylan Floro 26 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Taylor Davis 27 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Jeimer Candelario↔ DET 23 – 11-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Matt Szczur↔ SDP 27 arb 15-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Mark Zagunis 24 – 7-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Félix Peña 27 pre-arb 25-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Mike Freeman↔ LAD 29 pre-arb 15-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Justin Grimm 28 arb 50-0.4 1.8 -3.3

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Jose Quintana2.0
Ian Happ1.8
Jon Jay1.2
Wade Davis1.1
Brian Duensing0.7
René Rivera0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Dexter Fowler4.3
Jason Hammel1.8
David Ross1.5
Aroldis Chapman1.3
Chris Coghlan0.6
Jorge Soler0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$171.6M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Jason Heyward277.000$28.2MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester3310.075$25.0MFREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist369.134$16.5MFREE AGENT
John Lackey3814.095$16.0MFREE AGENT
Wade Davis317.032$10.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero3310.031$8.1MFREE AGENT
Jon Jay326.134$8.0MFREE AGENT
Koji Uehara428.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Duensing347.055$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brett Anderson298.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Alex Avila307.061$625kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Jake Arrieta315.145$15.6MFREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo274.168$7.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Rondón294.000$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop325.156$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Quintana284.133$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Grimm283.170$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leonys Martin294.078$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Wilson294.035$955kARB 3FREE AGENT
René Rivera335.070$473kFREE AGENT
Tommy La Stella283.000$348kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Kris Bryant251.171$1.1MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks272.080$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Russell231.167$644kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Báez241.089$609kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Montgomery271.089$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber241.086$566kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.252.000$556kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Almora Jr.231.000$552kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willson Contreras250.108$544kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Happ220.000$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Peña270.045$248kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Caratini230.000$219kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Butler261.074$193kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Zastryzny250.045$102kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Maples250.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Davis270.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Szczur271.134$69kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jen-Ho Tseng220.020$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Freeman290.038$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Floro260.040$38kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeimer Candelario230.006$27kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Zagunis240.000$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup292.105$16kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Leathersich260.091$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pierce Johnson260.000$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Frankoff280.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.