CHC⇄BAL

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$0.8M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2015 odds 83% → 83% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy HunterP·28y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$0.8M net -0.2

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2015 odds 14% → 14% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Junior LakeOF·25y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.