BOS⇄MIA

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$8.0M net +2.0

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 2.0 ± 4 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2011 odds 91% → 90% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew MillerP·26y·L/L

+$12.7M+$12.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 2.0± 4 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

#6 overall draft pick → 0.62/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net −$8.0M net -2.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2011 odds 5% → 5% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dustin RichardsonP·27y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#163 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

-0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.