Rosternomics
AJ Preller

AJ Preller

★ active

Aggressive, scouting-driven head of the San Diego Padres, known for blockbuster trades and high-profile acquisitions (Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Yu Darvish) as he pushed the franchise to spend and deal its way into contention.

12 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs4
Record848–881
Win %0.490
-19.3WAB — wins above budget145th/195 execs
-12.2Talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation)123rd/195 execs
0.80Acquisition leverage — playoff pts each bought win added, given the roster it joined (did you buy where wins matter?)113th/195 execs
-72.1WAR surplus (era-neutral, win-equiv)151st/195 execs
-273Roster surplus $M171st/195 execs

How the roster was sourced

Share of gross-positive acquired fWAR by channel (vs. league average).

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+40.1
Trade+2.6
Free agency-26.8
Rule 5 / minor draft-1.0
Sourcing mix: 19% draft · 37% FA · 43% trade · 0% R5

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Padres GM 2015–present 10 -19.3 -1.93 -12.2 -72.1 +40.1 +2.6 -26.8 -1.0 0.80 0.490 4 -273
Career total (1985+ data) 12 -19.3 -12.2 -72.1 +40.1 +2.6 -26.8 -1.0 0.80 0.490 4 -273

Players acquired — 190 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year fWAR
Manny Machado 3B SDP Free agency 2019 +27.7
Fernando Tatís SS/OF SDP Trade 2016 +26.7
Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B SDP Trade 2019 +14.8
Xander Bogaerts SS SDP Free agency 2022 +10.9
Ha-Seong Kim SS SDP Draft 2021 +10.9
Yu Darvish P SDP Trade 2020 +10.8
Blake Snell P SDP Trade 2020 +9.8
Jackson Merrill OF SDP Draft 2024 +8.7
Jurickson Profar OF SDP Free agency 2021 +6.6
Manuel Margot OF SDP Trade 2015 +5.3
Nick Pivetta P SDP Free agency 2025 +4.5
Chris Paddack P SDP Trade 2016 +4.2
Adrián Morejón P SDP Intl FA 2016 +4.1
Craig Stammen P SDP Free agency 2016 +3.6
Robert Suarez P SDP Draft 2022 +3.5
Luis Perdomo P SDP Trade 2015 +3.2
Seth Lugo P SDP Free agency 2022 +2.9
Clayton Richard P SDP Free agency 2016 +2.9
Eric Lauer P SDP Draft 2016 +2.8
Joey Lucchesi P SDP Draft 2016 +2.8
Jhoulys Chacín P SDP Free agency 2016 +2.7
Michael Wacha P SDP Free agency 2023 +2.6
Randy Vásquez P SDP Trade 2023 +2.4
Gavin Sheets DH/OF SDP Free agency 2025 +2.3
Freddy Galvis SS SDP Trade 2017 +2.2
Christian Villanueva 3B SDP Trade 2017 +2.2
Mike King P SDP Free agency 2025 +2.0
Nick Martínez P SDP Free agency 2022 +1.8
Luis García P SDP Free agency 2021 +1.7
Adam Rosales 2B/3B/SS SDP Free agency 2016 +1.7
Kyle Higashioka C SDP Trade 2023 +1.6
Matt Waldron P SDP Draft 2023 +1.6
Christian Friedrich P SDP Free agency 2016 +1.5
B. J. Upton OF SDP Trade 2015 +1.5
Pierce Johnson P SDP Free agency 2019 +1.4
Mason Miller P SDP Trade 2025 +1.4
José Pirela 2B/OF SDP Free agency 2016 +1.4
Craig Kimbrel P SDP Trade 2015 +1.3
Jason Adam P SDP Trade 2024 +1.2
Drew Pomeranz P SDP Free agency 2019 +1.2
Ryan Buchter P SDP Free agency 2015 +1.1
Mark Melancon P SDP Free agency 2021 +1.1
Cal Quantrill P SDP Draft 2016 +1.1
Tommy Pham OF SDP Trade 2019 +1.0
Luis Arráez 1B/2B SDP Trade 2024 +0.9
Luis Campusano C SDP Draft 2017 +0.8
Nabil Crismatt P SDP Free agency 2020 +0.8
MacKenzie Gore P SDP Draft 2022 +0.8
Donovan Solano 2B SDP Free agency 2024 +0.8
Pedro Avila P SDP Trade 2016 +0.7
Bryce Johnson OF SDP Trade 2025 +0.7
Bradgley Rodriguez P SDP Draft 2025 +0.7
James Shields P SDP Free agency 2015 +0.7
Steven Wilson P SDP Draft 2022 +0.7
Walker Buehler P SDP Free agency 2026 +0.6
Eric Hosmer 1B SDP Free agency 2018 +0.6
Garrett Richards P SDP Free agency 2018 +0.6
Eguy Rosario 3B SDP Draft 2022 +0.6
Trey Wingenter P SDP Draft 2015 +0.6
José Azocar OF SDP Draft 2022 +0.5
Matthew Batten 2B/3B SDP Draft 2022 +0.5
Jon Jay OF SDP Trade 2015 +0.5
Ramón Laureano OF SDP Trade 2025 +0.5
David Peralta OF SDP Free agency 2024 +0.5
Robert Stock P SDP Trade 2018 +0.5
Miguel Andújar 3B/OF SDP Free agency 2026 +0.4
Mike Clevinger P SDP Trade 2020 +0.4
Tom Cosgrove P SDP Draft 2023 +0.4
Elías Díaz C SDP Free agency 2025 +0.4
Ty France 1B SDP Draft 2015 +0.4
Andrés Muñoz P SDP Intl FA 2015 +0.4
Michel Báez P SDP Intl FA 2016 +0.3
Jhony Brito P SDP Trade 2023 +0.3
Dusty Coleman SS SDP Free agency 2016 +0.3
Stephen Kolek P SDP Draft 2024 +0.3
Ron Marinaccio P SDP Trade 2025 +0.3
Phil Maton P SDP Draft 2015 +0.3
Rougned Odor 2B SDP Free agency 2023 +0.3
Webster Rivas C SDP Trade 2021 +0.3
Austin Adams P SDP Trade 2020 +0.2
Drew Carlton P SDP Free agency 2022 +0.2
Jarred Cosart P SDP Trade 2016 +0.2
Yuki Matsui P SDP Draft 2024 +0.2
Nomar Mazara OF SDP Free agency 2022 +0.2
Brad Wieck P SDP Trade 2015 +0.2
Colten Brewer P SDP Trade 2018 +0.1
Griffin Canning P SDP Free agency 2026 +0.1
Lucas Giolito P SDP Free agency 2026 +0.1
Bryan Hoeing P SDP Trade 2024 +0.1
Ian Kinsler 2B SDP Free agency 2018 +0.1
Patrick Kivlehan OF SDP Free agency 2021 +0.1
Aaron Loup P SDP Free agency 2019 +0.1
Mason McCoy SS SDP Free agency 2023 +0.1
Seth Mejias-Brean 1B/SS SDP Trade 2019 +0.1
David Morgan P SDP Draft 2025 +0.1
James Norwood P SDP Trade 2021 +0.1
Jorge Oña DH SDP Intl FA 2016 +0.1
Tayler Scott P SDP Free agency 2022 +0.1
José Torres P SDP Trade 2015 +0.1
Rowan Wick P SDP Trade 2018 +0.1
Jackson Wolf P SDP Draft 2023 +0.1
John Andreoli OF SDP Free agency 2021 +0.0
Buddy Baumann P SDP Trade 2016 +0.0
Dan Camarena P SDP Trade 2021 +0.0
Carter Capps P SDP Trade 2016 -0.0
Víctor Caratini C SDP Trade 2020 +0.0
Ivan Castillo 2B/3B SDP Trade 2021 +0.0
Omar Cruz P SDP Draft 2025 +0.0
Austin Davis P SDP Free agency 2024 +0.0
Rodolfo Durán C SDP Draft 2026 -0.0
Carl Edwards P SDP Free agency 2024 +0.0
Jake Esch P SDP Free agency 2017 +0.0
Jose Espada P SDP Draft 2023 -0.0
Freddy Fermin C SDP Trade 2025 -0.0
Kyle Hart P SDP Free agency 2025 +0.0
Bryce Johnson OF SDP Free agency 2023 -0.0
Ray Kerr P SDP Draft 2022 +0.0
Brandon Lockridge OF SDP Trade 2024 +0.0
Tucupita Marcano 2B/SS/OF SDP Intl FA 2016 -0.0
Brian O'Grady OF SDP Free agency 2020 +0.0
Nick Ramirez P SDP Free agency 2020 +0.0
Sean Reynolds P SDP Trade 2023 -0.0
Chandler Seagle DH SDP Draft 2023 -0.0
Sung Mun Song 2B SDP Draft 2026 +0.0
César Vargas P SDP Trade 2016 -0.0
Ryan Weathers P SDP Draft 2018 +0.0
David Bednar P SDP Draft 2016 -0.1
Ronald Bolaños P SDP Intl FA 2016 -0.1
Ben Gamel OF SDP Trade 2023 -0.1
Nick Hernandez P SDP Draft 2023 -0.1
Alek Jacob P SDP Draft 2023 -0.1
Keone Kela P SDP Free agency 2021 -0.1
Luis Liberato DH/OF SDP Draft 2022 -0.1
Kazuhisa Makita P SDP Draft 2018 -0.1
Nick Margevicius P SDP Draft 2017 -0.1
Jorge Mateo SS SDP Trade 2020 -0.1
Marcos Mateo P SDP Free agency 2015 -0.1
Luis Patiño P SDP Intl FA 2016 -0.1
Wandy Peralta P SDP Free agency 2024 -0.1
Jake Smith P SDP Trade 2016 -0.1
Domingo Tapia P SDP Free agency 2022 -0.1
Matt Thornton P SDP Free agency 2016 -0.1
Abraham Almonte OF SDP Free agency 2019 -0.2
Carlos Asuaje 2B SDP Trade 2015 -0.2
David Dahl OF SDP Free agency 2022 -0.2
Brandon Dixon 1B/OF SDP Free agency 2022 -0.2
Adam Engel OF SDP Free agency 2023 -0.2
Logan Gillaspie P SDP Free agency 2024 -0.2
Tim Hill P SDP Trade 2020 -0.2
Jose Iglesias SS SDP Free agency 2023 -0.2
Taylor Kohlwey OF SDP Draft 2023 -0.2
Rafael Lopez C SDP Free agency 2017 -0.2
Tirso Ornelas OF SDP Draft 2025 -0.2
Jemile Weeks 2B SDP Free agency 2016 -0.2
Austin Allen C SDP Draft 2015 -0.3
Jabari Blash OF SDP Trade 2015 -0.3
Nelson Cruz DH/OF SDP Free agency 2023 -0.3
A. J. Ellis C SDP Free agency 2018 -0.3
Oscar González OF SDP Free agency 2024 -0.3
Javy Guerra P SDP Trade 2015 -0.3
Adam Mazur P SDP Draft 2024 -0.3
Josh Naylor 1B SDP Trade 2016 -0.3
Graham Pauley 3B SDP Draft 2024 -0.3
Héctor Sánchez C SDP Free agency 2016 -0.3
Erick Aybar SS SDP Free agency 2017 -0.4
Matt Carpenter 3B SDP Free agency 2022 -0.4
Yuli Gurriel 1B SDP Free agency 2025 -0.4
Chase Headley 3B SDP Trade 2017 -0.4
Brett Kennedy P SDP Draft 2015 -0.4
Reiss Knehr P SDP Draft 2018 -0.4
Germán Márquez P SDP Free agency 2026 -0.4
Nick Noonan 2B/3B SDP Free agency 2016 -0.4
Emilio Pagán P SDP Trade 2020 -0.4
Matt Szczur OF SDP Trade 2017 -0.4
Trenton Brooks 1B/DH SDP Free agency 2024 -0.5
José Domínguez P SDP Free agency 2015 -0.5
Jason Heyward OF SDP Free agency 2025 -0.5
Cory Mazzoni P SDP Trade 2015 -0.5
Jacob Nix P SDP Draft 2015 -0.5
Brett Sullivan C SDP Trade 2022 -0.6
Matt Beaty 1B/OF SDP Trade 2022 -0.7
Nick Castellanos 3B/OF SDP Free agency 2026 -0.7
Carlos Villanueva P SDP Free agency 2016 -0.7
Tyler Wade 2B/OF SDP Free agency 2023 -0.7
Miguel Díaz P SDP Trade 2016 -0.8
Martín Maldonado C SDP Free agency 2025 -0.8
Adam Warren P SDP Free agency 2019 -0.8
Allen Córdoba SS/OF SDP Rule 5 2016 -1.0
Jered Weaver P SDP Free agency 2017 -1.1
Luis Torrens C SDP Trade 2016 -1.3

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.