RRosternomics
AJ Preller

AJ Preller

★ active

Aggressive, scouting-driven head of the San Diego Padres, known for blockbuster trades and high-profile acquisitions (Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Yu Darvish) as he pushed the franchise to spend and deal its way into contention.

12 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs4
Record867–910
Win %0.488
-1.2GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±4.6108th/195 execs
5.5Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)131st/195 execs
-4.8Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)76th/195 execs
35%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)106th/195 execs
$26MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track60th/195 execs
$5MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)108th/195 execs
$17MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade22nd/195 execs
$3MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees47th/195 execs
-12.7TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total123rd/195 execs
-19.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)144th/195 execs
2.35Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)72nd/195 execs
-271Roster surplus $M171st/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Padres GM 2015–present 10 -19.9 -1.99 -12.7 -72.5 +43.4 +2.6 -30.9 -1.0 2.35 0.488 4 -271
Career total (1985+ data) 12 -19.9 -12.7 -72.5 +43.4 +2.6 -30.9 -1.0 2.35 0.488 4 -271

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+43.4
Trade+2.6
Free agency-30.9
Rule 5 / minor draft-1.0
Sourcing mix: 20% draft · 37% FA · 43% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across AJ Preller's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 244 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Manny Machado 3B SDP Free agency 2019 8 +28.8 +3.6 0.7
Fernando Tatís SS/OF SDP Trade 2016 7 +28.5 +4.1
Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B SDP Trade 2019 6 +14.7 +2.4
Wil Myers 1B/OF SDP Trade 2015 8 +13.5 +1.7 0.1
Xander Bogaerts SS SDP Free agency 2022 4 +11.5 +2.9 25.4
Ha-Seong Kim SS SDP Draft 2021 4 +10.9 +2.7
Yu Darvish P SDP Trade 2020 5 +10.8 +2.2 2.9
Blake Snell P SDP Trade 2020 3 +9.8 +3.3 2.1
Joe Musgrove P SDP Trade 2021 4 +9.6 +2.4 2.7
Jackson Merrill OF SDP Draft 2024 3 +9.1 +3.0
Trent Grisham OF SDP Trade 2020 4 +8.3 +2.1 20.1
Dylan Cease P SDP Trade 2024 2 +8.1 +4.1 19.8
Juan Soto OF SDP Trade 2022 2 +7.3 +3.7 5.2
Jurickson Profar OF SDP Free agency 2021 4 +6.6 +1.6 8.2
Kirby Yates P SDP Trade 2017 3 +5.7 +1.9 0.0
Manuel Margot OF SDP Trade 2015 4 +5.3 +1.3
Adrián Morejón P SDP Intl FA 2016 6 +5.1 +0.8
Nick Pivetta P SDP Free agency 2025 2 +4.6 +2.3 12.2
Chris Paddack P SDP Trade 2016 3 +4.2 +1.4
Derek Norris C SDP Trade 2015 2 +4.2 +2.1 0.4
Brad Hand P SDP Trade 2016 3 +3.9 +1.3 0.0
Craig Stammen P SDP Free agency 2016 5 +3.6 +0.7 0.0
Robert Suarez P SDP Draft 2022 4 +3.5 +0.9
Justin Upton OF SDP Trade 2015 1 +3.4 +3.4 0.3
Luis Perdomo P SDP Trade 2015 4 +3.2 +0.8
Seth Lugo P SDP Free agency 2022 1 +2.9 +2.9 15.1
Clayton Richard P SDP Free agency 2016 7 +2.9 +0.4 0.1
Jeremiah Estrada P SDP Trade 2024 3 +2.9 +1.0 6.5
Eric Lauer P SDP Draft 2016 2 +2.8 +1.4
Joey Lucchesi P SDP Draft 2016 3 +2.8 +0.9
Jhoulys Chacín P SDP Free agency 2016 1 +2.7 +2.7 0.1
Michael Wacha P SDP Free agency 2023 1 +2.6 +2.6 13.8
Mike King P SDP Free agency 2025 3 +2.5 +0.8 16.0
Mason Miller P SDP Trade 2025 2 +2.5 +1.3 3.6
Matt Strahm P SDP Trade 2018 4 +2.4 +0.6 0.2
Freddy Galvis SS SDP Trade 2017 1 +2.2 +2.2 0.4
Christian Villanueva 3B SDP Trade 2017 2 +2.2 +1.1
Brandon Maurer P SDP Trade 2015 3 +2.1 +0.7 0.1
Gavin Sheets DH/OF SDP Free agency 2025 2 +2.0 +1.0 4.6
Randy Vásquez P SDP Trade 2023 3 +1.9 +0.6 2.9
Josh Hader P SDP Trade 2022 2 +1.9 +1.0 0.8
Nick Martínez P SDP Free agency 2022 2 +1.8 +0.9 1.9
Matt Waldron P SDP Draft 2023 3 +1.8 +0.6
Gary Sánchez C SDP Trade 2023 1 +1.8 +1.8 8.9
Luis García P SDP Free agency 2021 2 +1.7 +0.8 6.9
Adam Rosales 2B/3B/SS SDP Free agency 2016 1 +1.7 +1.7 0.0
Kyle Higashioka C SDP Trade 2023 1 +1.6 +1.6 6.3
Trevor Cahill P SDP Trade 2017 1 +1.6 +1.6 0.1
Christian Friedrich P SDP Free agency 2016 1 +1.5 +1.5 0.0
B. J. Upton OF SDP Trade 2015 2 +1.5 +0.8 0.2
Ty France 1B SDP Draft 2015 2 +1.4 +0.7
Pierce Johnson P SDP Free agency 2019 3 +1.4 +0.5 2.6
José Pirela 2B/OF SDP Free agency 2016 2 +1.4 +0.7 0.1
Zach Davies P SDP Trade 2020 1 +1.4 +1.4 11.8
Craig Kimbrel P SDP Trade 2015 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.1
Taylor Rogers P SDP Trade 2022 1 +1.3 +1.3 5.8
Drew Pomeranz P SDP Free agency 2019 3 +1.2 +0.4 0.1
Jason Adam P SDP Trade 2024 2 +1.1 +0.6 2.7
Ryan Buchter P SDP Free agency 2015 2 +1.1 +0.6 0.0
Mark Melancon P SDP Free agency 2021 1 +1.1 +1.1 1.2
Cal Quantrill P SDP Draft 2016 2 +1.1 +0.5
Sean Manaea P SDP Trade 2022 1 +1.1 +1.1 4.8
Tommy Pham OF SDP Trade 2019 1 +1.0 +1.0 1.1
Luis Arráez 1B/2B SDP Trade 2024 2 +0.9 +0.4 4.6
Walker Buehler P SDP Free agency 2026 1 +0.9 +0.9 1.1
Luis Campusano C SDP Draft 2017 3 +0.9 +0.3
Bradgley Rodriguez P SDP Draft 2025 2 +0.9 +0.5
Shawn Kelley P SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.9 +0.9 0.1
Austin Nola C SDP Trade 2020 3 +0.9 +0.3 3.9
Greg Garcia 2B/3B SDP Trade 2019 1 +0.9 +0.9 0.3
Nabil Crismatt P SDP Free agency 2020 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.1
MacKenzie Gore P SDP Draft 2022 1 +0.8 +0.8
Donovan Solano 2B SDP Free agency 2024 1 +0.8 +0.8 3.1
Fernando Rodney P SDP Trade 2016 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.0
Pedro Avila P SDP Trade 2016 2 +0.7 +0.4
James Shields P SDP Free agency 2015 2 +0.7 +0.4 0.1
Samad Taylor 2B/OF SDP Free agency 2026 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.8
Steven Wilson P SDP Draft 2022 2 +0.7 +0.4
Tanner Scott P SDP Trade 2024 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.8
Eric Hosmer 1B SDP Free agency 2018 3 +0.6 +0.2 6.1
Garrett Richards P SDP Free agency 2018 1 +0.6 +0.6 6.2
Eguy Rosario 3B SDP Draft 2022 3 +0.6 +0.2
Trey Wingenter P SDP Draft 2015 1 +0.6 +0.6
Trevor Rosenthal P SDP Trade 2020 1 +0.6 +0.6 5.2
Adam Frazier 2B/OF SDP Trade 2021 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.7
Ryan O'Hearn 1B SDP Trade 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.0
José Azocar OF SDP Draft 2022 2 +0.5 +0.3
Matthew Batten 2B/3B SDP Draft 2022 2 +0.5 +0.3
Jon Jay OF SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.0
Bryce Johnson OF SDP Trade 2025 1 +0.5 +0.5 2.3
David Peralta OF SDP Free agency 2024 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.8
Sung Mun Song 2B SDP Draft 2026 1 +0.5 +0.5
Robert Stock P SDP Trade 2018 1 +0.5 +0.5
Luke Voit 1B/DH SDP Trade 2022 1 +0.5 +0.5 2.2
Scott Barlow P SDP Trade 2023 1 +0.5 +0.5 2.6
Mike Clevinger P SDP Trade 2020 2 +0.4 +0.2 6.3
Tom Cosgrove P SDP Draft 2023 1 +0.4 +0.4
Elías Díaz C SDP Free agency 2025 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.5
Andrés Muñoz P SDP Intl FA 2015 1 +0.4 +0.4
Matt Kemp OF SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
Jordan Lyles P SDP Trade 2017 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.0
Brandon Drury 2B/3B SDP Trade 2022 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.7
Jorge Alfaro C SDP Trade 2022 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.7
Michel Báez P SDP Intl FA 2016 3 +0.3 +0.1
Griffin Canning P SDP Free agency 2026 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.3
Dusty Coleman SS SDP Free agency 2016 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Stephen Kolek P SDP Draft 2024 2 +0.3 +0.1
Phil Maton P SDP Draft 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3
David Morgan P SDP Draft 2025 2 +0.3 +0.2
Rougned Odor 2B SDP Free agency 2023 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.7
Wandy Peralta P SDP Free agency 2024 2 +0.3 +0.2 1.7
Webster Rivas C SDP Trade 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3
Edwin Jackson P SDP Trade 2016 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Brandon Morrow P SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Ryan Bergert P SDP Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.1
Austin Adams P SDP Trade 2020 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0
Jhony Brito P SDP Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.2
Drew Carlton P SDP Free agency 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.2
Jarred Cosart P SDP Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Ramón Laureano OF SDP Trade 2025 2 +0.2 +0.1 2.3
Nomar Mazara OF SDP Free agency 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.0
Brad Wieck P SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.2 +0.2
Clint Barmes 2B/SS SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Bud Norris P SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Martín Pérez P SDP Trade 2024 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.9
Garrett Cooper 1B/DH SDP Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.9
Miguel Andújar 3B/OF SDP Free agency 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Colten Brewer P SDP Trade 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1
Freddy Fermin C SDP Trade 2025 2 +0.1 +0.1 1.9
Bryan Hoeing P SDP Trade 2024 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.9
Ian Kinsler 2B SDP Free agency 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Patrick Kivlehan OF SDP Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Aaron Loup P SDP Free agency 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Mason McCoy SS SDP Free agency 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.7
Seth Mejias-Brean 1B/SS SDP Trade 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1
James Norwood P SDP Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Jorge Oña DH SDP Intl FA 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1
Tayler Scott P SDP Free agency 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
José Torres P SDP Trade 2015 2 +0.1 +0.0
Rowan Wick P SDP Trade 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1
Jackson Wolf P SDP Draft 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1
Brett Wallace 1B SDP Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Paul Clemens P SDP Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Daniel Hudson P SDP Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Taylor Williams P SDP Trade 2020 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.2
Shaun Anderson P SDP Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Greg Allen OF SDP Trade 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.8
Dan Altavilla P SDP Trade 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 1.7
John Andreoli OF SDP Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Buddy Baumann P SDP Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0
Dan Camarena P SDP Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0
Carter Capps P SDP Trade 2016 -0.0
Víctor Caratini C SDP Trade 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Ivan Castillo 2B/3B SDP Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0
Omar Cruz P SDP Draft 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0
Austin Davis P SDP Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Carl Edwards P SDP Free agency 2024 +0.0
Jake Esch P SDP Free agency 2017 +0.0
Jose Espada P SDP Draft 2023 -0.0
Kyle Hart P SDP Free agency 2025 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.1
Bryce Johnson OF SDP Free agency 2023 1 -0.0 -0.0 2.3
Ray Kerr P SDP Draft 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0
Brandon Lockridge OF SDP Trade 2024 2 +0.0 +0.0
Tucupita Marcano 2B/SS/OF SDP Intl FA 2016 -0.0
Brian O'Grady OF SDP Free agency 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Nick Ramirez P SDP Free agency 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Sean Reynolds P SDP Trade 2023 1 -0.0 -0.0
Chandler Seagle DH SDP Draft 2023 -0.0
César Vargas P SDP Trade 2016 -0.0
Ryan Weathers P SDP Draft 2018 2 +0.0 +0.0
Michael Kirkman P SDP Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Tim Melville P SDP Trade 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Nick Ahmed SS SDP Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Francisco Mejía C SDP Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Kyle Tyler P SDP Trade 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
David Bednar P SDP Draft 2016 1 -0.1 -0.1
Ronald Bolaños P SDP Intl FA 2016 -0.1
Ben Gamel OF SDP Trade 2023 -0.1
Nick Hernandez P SDP Draft 2023 -0.1
Alek Jacob P SDP Draft 2023 2 -0.1 -0.1
Keone Kela P SDP Free agency 2021 -0.1
Luis Liberato DH/OF SDP Draft 2022 -0.1
Kazuhisa Makita P SDP Draft 2018 -0.1
Nick Margevicius P SDP Draft 2017 -0.1
Ron Marinaccio P SDP Trade 2025 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.7
Jorge Mateo SS SDP Trade 2020 1 -0.1 -0.1
Marcos Mateo P SDP Free agency 2015 -0.1
Yuki Matsui P SDP Draft 2024 1 -0.1 -0.1
Luis Patiño P SDP Intl FA 2016 -0.1
Jake Smith P SDP Trade 2016 -0.1
Nick Solak 2B SDP Free agency 2025 -0.1
Domingo Tapia P SDP Free agency 2022 -0.1
Matt Thornton P SDP Free agency 2016 -0.1
Abraham Almonte OF SDP Free agency 2019 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Carlos Asuaje 2B SDP Trade 2015 1 -0.2 -0.2
David Dahl OF SDP Free agency 2022 -0.2
Brandon Dixon 1B/OF SDP Free agency 2022 -0.2
Adam Engel OF SDP Free agency 2023 -0.2
Logan Gillaspie P SDP Free agency 2024 -0.2
Lucas Giolito P SDP Free agency 2026 -0.2
Tim Hill P SDP Trade 2020 2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2
Jose Iglesias SS SDP Free agency 2023 -0.2
Taylor Kohlwey OF SDP Draft 2023 -0.2
Rafael Lopez C SDP Free agency 2017 -0.2
Tirso Ornelas OF SDP Draft 2025 -0.2
Jemile Weeks 2B SDP Free agency 2016 -0.2
Christian Bethancourt C SDP Trade 2016 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Luis Sardiñas 2B/SS SDP Trade 2016 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Austin Allen C SDP Draft 2015 -0.3
Jabari Blash OF SDP Trade 2015 1 -0.3 -0.3
Nelson Cruz DH/OF SDP Free agency 2023 -0.3
A. J. Ellis C SDP Free agency 2018 -0.3
Oscar González OF SDP Free agency 2024 -0.3
Javy Guerra P SDP Trade 2015 2 -0.3 -0.2
Adam Mazur P SDP Draft 2024 -0.3
Josh Naylor 1B SDP Trade 2016 1 -0.3 -0.3
Graham Pauley 3B SDP Draft 2024 -0.3
Héctor Sánchez C SDP Free agency 2016 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Erick Aybar SS SDP Free agency 2017 -0.4
Matt Carpenter 3B SDP Free agency 2022 -0.4
Yuli Gurriel 1B SDP Free agency 2025 -0.4
Chase Headley 3B SDP Trade 2017 7 -0.4 -0.1
Brett Kennedy P SDP Draft 2015 -0.4
Reiss Knehr P SDP Draft 2018 1 -0.4 -0.4
Germán Márquez P SDP Free agency 2026 -0.4
Nick Noonan 2B/3B SDP Free agency 2016 -0.4
Emilio Pagán P SDP Trade 2020 1 -0.4 -0.4 0.3
Matt Szczur OF SDP Trade 2017 1 -0.4 -0.4 0.0
Trenton Brooks 1B/DH SDP Free agency 2024 -0.5
José Domínguez P SDP Free agency 2015 -0.5
Jason Heyward OF SDP Free agency 2025 -0.5
Cory Mazzoni P SDP Trade 2015 -0.5
Jacob Nix P SDP Draft 2015 -0.5
Brett Sullivan C SDP Trade 2022 -0.6
Tyler Wade 2B/OF SDP Free agency 2023 -0.6
Matt Beaty 1B/OF SDP Trade 2022 -0.7
Carlos Villanueva P SDP Free agency 2016 -0.7
Nick Castellanos 3B/OF SDP Free agency 2026 -0.8
Miguel Díaz P SDP Trade 2016 1 -0.8 -0.8
Martín Maldonado C SDP Free agency 2025 -0.8
Adam Warren P SDP Free agency 2019 -0.8
Allen Córdoba SS/OF SDP Rule 5 2016 -1.0
Jered Weaver P SDP Free agency 2017 -1.1
Luis Torrens C SDP Trade 2016 1 -1.3 -1.3

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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