CHC⇄OAK

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$3.2M net +0.8

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $11M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.5 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2016 odds 93% → 95% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris CoghlanOF·31y·L/R

+$6.4M+$6.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$3.2M net -0.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Arismendy Alcántara2B/OF·24y·B/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

Composite #100.0 pedigree (Baseball America #100 (2014)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.