CHC⇄SDP

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$174.4M net +25.8

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · +$216.8M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · 32.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2012 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach Cates

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Anthony Rizzo1B·22y·L/L

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$216.8M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized 32.8

Prior

Composite #47.0 pedigree (Baseball America #47 (2012)) → 0.49/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.7/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Josh Byrnes net −$174.4M net -25.8

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $29M expected surplus · +$42.4M realized received 0.2 ± 4 expected · 7.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2012 odds 7% → 5% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyung-Min Na

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew CashnerP·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$42.4M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 7.0

Prior

#19 overall draft pick → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.