BOS⇄SDP

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $11M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2005 odds 50% → 50% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam HyzduOF·33y·R/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$1.6M net -0.2

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2005 odds 30% → 29% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott CassidyP·29y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.03/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.