President of baseball operations for the Nationals (2026–present).
Across the full 1-season sample, the measured profile stands out most for cheap-talent surplus (99th percentile). The clearest contrast is avoidance of dead payroll (4th percentile): a larger share of payroll has gone to players below 0.5 WAR than for most peers. Because the sample covers fewer than five seasons, those comparisons are descriptive rather than stable.
1 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.
Trade-side columns:RFA is playoff-readiness percentage points added to the future roster foundation. It grades the franchise's entire side of a trade, so the same score repeats for every player acquired in that package. PPA/CPA remain player-level arrival-year probability points.
WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.
Each point is a team-season: x = relative payroll (× league average), y = win %. Gray = every team 1985–present; orange = Paul Toboni's teams. The dashed line is the win% that payroll predicts — points above it won more than their budget bought, and that vertical gap (in wins) is WAB.
Each point is a team-season: x = relative payroll, y = team WAR (talent, per 162 games). Gray = every team; orange = Paul Toboni's teams. The dashed line is the talent payroll predicts — points above it built more WAR than their budget should buy, and that gap is TAB.
Why the PPA— every acquisition, graded in the year its wins arrived
Each point is one acquisition (FA/trade), placed in its arrival year: x = WAR it added that year, y = its fair share of the playoff-odds boost its season's acquisitions bought. PPA rewards buying wins near the playoff threshold. The dashed line is this GM's career average of 0.5 pts per bought WAR.
Why the CPA — the same acquisitions on the World Series curve
Each point is one acquisition: x = WAR it added that year, y = its fair share of the World Series odds boost its season's acquisitions bought. CPA rewards buying wins on rosters strong enough for another win to matter in the title race.
The PPA curve — how each acquisition stacked up the playoff curve
Season
The grey dotted line is the playoff curve. The ■ is the base already on hand before that year's moves. Each orange step adds one acquisition: across = its WAR, up = its PPA. The steps add up with no double-counting.
The CPA curve — how each acquisition stacked up the championship curve
Season
Same acquisition stack, but the vertical move is championship probability. This is the graph for teams already strong enough that the next win is about title equity, not just getting into October.
We use cookies and collect anonymized usage data to run and improve Rosternomics. By continuing, you agree to our Terms & Privacy Policy.