CHC⇄SEA

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$8.8M net +2.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $35M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2016 odds 94% → 95% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike MontgomeryP·26y·L/L

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#36 overall draft pick → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jordan PriesP·26y·S/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#903 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$8.8M net -2.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2016 odds 31% → 30% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan Vogelbach1B/DH·23y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#68 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Paul BlackburnP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#56 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.