HOU⇄CHC

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$5.6M net +1.6

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2019 odds 100% → 100% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Martín MaldonadoC·32y·R/R

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.72/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$5.6M net -1.6

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $27M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2019 odds 55% → 51% (-4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony Kemp2B/OF·27y·L/R

+$9.6M+$9.6M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.