CHC⇄SEA

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$4.0M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2015 odds 83% → 83% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt BrazisP·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#851 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$4.0M net -0.2

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2015 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin RuggianoOF·33y·R/R

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.