RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.58× league · TAB +8.2
+8.2TAB — talent above budget7th/30
-1.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
35%dead money %16th/30
0.451win %22nd/30
35.7roster fWAR10th/30
+40surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$66Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFArismendy Alcántara 48GJunior Lake 36GRyan Sweeney 24G
LFChris Coghlan 101GJunior Lake 53GRyan Kalish 18G
RFJustin Ruggiano 34GJorge Soler 24GRyan Sweeney 22G
SSStarlin Castro 133GJavier Báez 30GChris Valaika 2G
2BArismendy Alcántara 25GJavier Báez 25GLuis Valbuena 21G
3BLuis Valbuena 124GMike Olt 52GChris Valaika 8G
1BAnthony Rizzo 140GChris Valaika 15GMike Olt 12G
STARTERSJake Arrieta 5.6WARTravis Wood 2.4WARKyle Hendricks 1.7WARCarlos Villanueva 1.1WARTsuyoshi Wada 0.8WAR
CWelington Castillo 106GJohn Baker 55GEli Whiteside 8G
DHMike Olt 3GLuis Valbuena 2GRyan Sweeney 2G
BULLPEN★ Héctor Rondón 29svPedro Strop 21hNeil Ramírez 16hBrian Schlitter 12hJustin Grimm 11hWesley Wright 9hZac Rosscup 1hBlake Parker 1h
CWelington Castillo 106 · John Baker 55 · Eli Whiteside 8
1BAnthony Rizzo 140 · Chris Valaika 15 · Mike Olt 12
2BArismendy Alcántara 25 · Javier Báez 25 · Luis Valbuena 21
3BLuis Valbuena 124 · Mike Olt 52 · Chris Valaika 8
SSStarlin Castro 133 · Javier Báez 30 · Chris Valaika 2
LFChris Coghlan 101 · Junior Lake 53 · Ryan Kalish 18
CFArismendy Alcántara 48 · Junior Lake 36 · Ryan Sweeney 24
RFJustin Ruggiano 34 · Jorge Soler 24 · Ryan Sweeney 22
DHMike Olt 3 · Luis Valbuena 2 · Ryan Sweeney 2
SPJake Arrieta 5.6 · Travis Wood 2.4 · Kyle Hendricks 1.7 · Carlos Villanueva 1.1 · Tsuyoshi Wada 0.8
BP★ Héctor Rondón 29 · Pedro Strop 21 · Neil Ramírez 16 · Brian Schlitter 12 · Justin Grimm 11 · Wesley Wright 9 · Zac Rosscup 1 · Blake Parker 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jake Arrieta 28 arb 265.6 0.5 +15.8
Anthony Rizzo 24 arb 1405.3 1.2 +14.4
Luis Valbuena 28 FA-elig 1493.2 1.7 +7.8
Starlin Castro 24 arb 1343.2 5.0 +4.4
Jeff Samardzija↔ OAK 29 FA-elig 172.4 2.8 +4.2
Travis Wood 27 arb 412.4 3.9 +3.0
Chris Coghlan 29 arb 1252.4 0.7 +6.3
Jason Hammel↔ OAK 31 FA-elig 172.1 3.4 +2.7
Emilio Bonifácio↔ ATL 29 FA-elig 691.8 1.6 +3.8
Kyle Hendricks 24 – 141.7 0.2 +4.9
Héctor Rondón 26 pre-arb 641.7 0.5 +4.4
Carlos Villanueva 30 FA-elig 421.1 5.0 -1.7
Pedro Strop 29 arb 651.1 1.3 +2.0
Neil Ramírez 25 – 500.9 0.4 +2.1
Edwin Jackson 30 FA-elig 290.8 11.0 -8.5
Tsuyoshi Wada 33 pre-arb 130.8 0.2 +2.2
Jorge Soler 22 – 240.7 2.7 -0.5
Arismendy Alcántara 22 – 700.7 0.2 +1.8
Justin Grimm 25 pre-arb 730.7 0.5 +1.5
Justin Ruggiano 32 FA-elig 810.5 2.0 -0.6
Darwin Barney↔ LAD 28 arb 720.4 1.8 -0.6
Brian Schlitter 28 pre-arb 610.4 0.4 +0.7
Ryan Sweeney 29 FA-elig 770.4 1.5 -0.5
Welington Castillo 27 arb 1100.3 0.5 +0.5
Wesley Wright 29 FA-elig 580.3 1.4 -0.6
Blake Parker 29 pre-arb 180.2 0.2 +0.4
Dallas Beeler 25 pre-arb 20.2 0.0 +0.5
Dan Straily↔ OAK 25 pre-arb 70.1 0.3 +0.0
Félix Doubront↔ BOS 26 arb 40.1 0.1 +0.1
Jacob Turner↔ MIA 23 pre-arb 80.0 0.1 -0.0
Chris Rusin 27 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Kyuji Fujikawa 33 pre-arb 15-0.0 4.5 -4.6
Arodys Vizcaíno 23 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Matt Szczur 24 – 33-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Zac Rosscup 26 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Chris Valaika 28 – 44-0.1 – –
Raffy Lopez 26 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
James Russell↔ ATL 28 arb 44-0.1 1.2 -1.4
Eric Jokisch 24 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Jose Veras↔ HOU 33 FA-elig 12-0.3 1.0 -1.9
Logan Watkins 24 pre-arb 31-0.4 0.1 -1.2
Ryan Kalish 26 arb 57-0.4 0.6 -1.7
Junior Lake 24 pre-arb 108-0.4 0.5 -1.7
Mike Olt 25 pre-arb 89-0.5 0.5 -1.8
Eli Whiteside 34 – 8-0.5 – –
Javier Báez 21 – 52-0.8 0.2 -2.4
Nate Schierholtz↔ WSN 30 FA-elig 99-0.9 4.1 -6.6
John Baker 33 FA-elig 68-1.2 0.9 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Chris Coghlan2.4
Jason Hammel2.1
Emilio Bonifácio1.8
Kyle Hendricks1.7
Neil Ramírez0.9
Tsuyoshi Wada0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Dioner Navarro2.2
David DeJesus1.8
Scott Feldman1.3
Matt Garza1.1
Brian Bogusevic0.9
Cody Ransom0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$65.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Edwin Jackson308.070$11.0M$7.1MFREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva307.030$5.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Hammel316.153$3.4M$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Jorge Soler2211.143$2.7M$2.7M$3.7MFREE AGENT
Ryan Sweeney296.028$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Veras336.128$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Starlin Castro243.150$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Schierholtz305.078$4.1MFREE AGENT
Travis Wood273.004$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija294.028$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Ruggiano323.019$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Barney283.053$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Valbuena283.148$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio295.066$1.6MFREE AGENT
Wesley Wright294.105$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell284.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Baker334.141$875kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan293.171$651kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Ramírez255.001$429kFREE AGENT
Matt Szczur244.064$117kARB 3FREE AGENT
Eli Whiteside345.012—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Kyuji Fujikawa331.000$4.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop292.156$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo241.168$1.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Kalish262.117$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo272.009$530kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Rondón261.000$514kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Grimm250.170$505kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rusin270.115$503kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Lake240.073$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Olt250.063$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta282.145$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schlitter282.029$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup260.027$260kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily251.031$252kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arismendy Alcántara220.000$221kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks240.000$189kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tsuyoshi Wada331.076$183kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Parker291.089$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Báez210.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Doubront262.120$112kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Watkins240.057$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Turner231.033$81kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Jokisch240.027$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arodys Vizcaíno232.050$74kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raffy Lopez260.034$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Beeler250.050$5kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Valaika281.089—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.