Rosternomics
Mike Elias

Mike Elias

★ active

Born Dec 28, 1982 · Alexandria, VA · age 43

Led the Baltimore Orioles' analytics-driven rebuild from baseball's worst record into a young, cost-controlled powerhouse and 2023 AL East champion.

8 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs2
Record510–583
Win %0.467
+20.1WAB — wins above budget36th/195 execs
+17.5Talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation)42nd/195 execs
1.23Acquisition leverage — playoff pts each bought win added, given the roster it joined (did you buy where wins matter?)68th/195 execs
+41.1WAR surplus (era-neutral, win-equiv)10th/195 execs
+150Roster surplus $M8th/195 execs

How the roster was sourced

Share of gross-positive acquired fWAR by channel (vs. league average).

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+65.2
Trade-2.0
Free agency-2.8
Rule 5 / minor draft+3.9
Sourcing mix: 69% draft · 7% FA · 20% trade · 4% R5

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Orioles GM 2019–present 6 +20.1 +3.36 +17.5 +41.1 +65.2 -2.0 -2.8 +3.9 1.23 0.467 2 +150
Career total (1985+ data) 8 +20.1 +17.5 +41.1 +65.2 -2.0 -2.8 +3.9 1.23 0.467 2 +150

Players acquired — 102 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year fWAR
Gunnar Henderson SS BAL Draft 2022 +19.4
Adley Rutschman C BAL Draft 2022 +16.8
Kyle Bradish P BAL Draft 2022 +8.0
Jordan Westburg 2B/3B BAL Draft 2023 +5.6
Ramón Urías 3B BAL Trade 2020 +5.2
Félix Bautista P BAL Draft 2022 +4.8
Colton Cowser OF BAL Draft 2023 +4.7
Grayson Rodriguez P BAL Draft 2023 +3.9
Corbin Burnes P BAL Trade 2024 +3.8
Tyler Wells P BAL Rule 5 2020 +3.3
Ryan O'Hearn 1B BAL Trade 2023 +3.1
Yennier Cano P BAL Trade 2022 +2.7
Kyle Gibson P BAL Free agency 2022 +2.0
Matt Harvey P BAL Free agency 2021 +1.8
Cade Povich P BAL Trade 2022 +1.8
Albert Suárez P BAL Free agency 2023 +1.7
Jose Iglesias SS BAL Free agency 2020 +1.6
Jackson Holliday 2B BAL Draft 2024 +1.5
Jordan Lyles P BAL Free agency 2022 +1.5
Pete Alonso 1B BAL Free agency 2025 +1.3
Shane Baz P BAL Trade 2025 +1.1
Alex Jackson C BAL Trade 2025 +1.0
Jeremiah Jackson 2B/OF BAL Rule 5 2025 +1.0
Samuel Basallo C/DH BAL Draft 2025 +0.9
Leody Taveras OF BAL Free agency 2025 +0.9
Rico Garcia P BAL Free agency 2021 +0.8
DL Hall P BAL Draft 2022 +0.8
Spenser Watkins P BAL Trade 2021 +0.8
Grant Wolfram P BAL Trade 2025 +0.8
Dylan Beavers OF BAL Draft 2025 +0.7
César Valdez P BAL Free agency 2020 +0.7
Brandon Young P BAL Draft 2025 +0.5
Blaze Alexander 3B BAL Trade 2026 +0.4
Chris Bassitt P BAL Free agency 2026 +0.4
Adam Frazier 2B/OF BAL Free agency 2022 +0.4
Ryan Helsley P BAL Free agency 2025 +0.3
James McCann C BAL Trade 2022 +0.3
Rougned Odor 2B BAL Free agency 2021 +0.3
Craig Kimbrel P BAL Free agency 2023 +0.2
Denyi Reyes P BAL Draft 2022 +0.2
Kade Strowd P BAL Draft 2025 +0.2
Fernando Abad P BAL Free agency 2020 +0.1
Jose Espada P BAL Free agency 2025 +0.1
Nate Karns P BAL Free agency 2019 +0.1
Dusten Knight P BAL Trade 2021 +0.1
Anthony Nunez P BAL Trade 2025 +0.1
Tomoyuki Sugano P BAL Draft 2025 +0.1
David Bañuelos DH BAL Draft 2024 -0.0
Matthew Bowman P BAL Free agency 2024 -0.0
Nick Ciuffo C BAL Free agency 2020 -0.0
Yusniel Díaz OF BAL Draft 2022 -0.0
Cameron Foster P BAL Trade 2025 -0.0
Sam Huff C BAL Free agency 2026 +0.0
Daniel Johnson OF BAL Free agency 2024 -0.0
Andrew Kittredge P BAL Trade 2025 +0.0
Vimael Machín 3B BAL Free agency 2024 +0.0
Isaac Mattson P BAL Trade 2019 -0.0
Cody Poteet P BAL Trade 2025 -0.0
Carson Ragsdale P BAL Draft 2025 -0.0
Cody Sedlock P BAL Draft 2022 +0.0
Lou Trivino P BAL Free agency 2026 -0.0
Chris Vallimont P BAL Draft 2023 +0.0
Jordyn Adams OF BAL Free agency 2024 -0.1
Manny Barreda P BAL Trade 2021 -0.1
Marcos Diplán P BAL Trade 2019 -0.1
Chris Ellis P BAL Free agency 2022 -0.1
Dilson Herrera 2B BAL Free agency 2019 -0.1
Tony Kemp 2B/OF BAL Free agency 2024 -0.1
Matt Krook P BAL Trade 2024 -0.1
Wade LeBlanc P BAL Free agency 2020 -0.1
Joey Ortiz 3B/SS BAL Draft 2023 -0.1
Nick Raquet P BAL Trade 2026 -0.1
Chandler Shepherd P BAL Trade 2019 -0.1
Nick Vespi P BAL Draft 2022 -0.1
Zach Eflin P BAL Free agency 2025 -0.2
Logan Gillaspie P BAL Draft 2022 -0.2
Bryan Holaday C BAL Free agency 2020 -0.2
Mickey Jannis P BAL Trade 2021 -0.2
Josh Lester 1B/DH BAL Free agency 2022 -0.2
Corbin Martin P BAL Free agency 2025 -0.2
Gary Sánchez C BAL Free agency 2024 -0.2
Kyle Stowers OF BAL Draft 2022 -0.2
Jesús Sucre C BAL Free agency 2019 -0.2
Terrin Vavra 2B/OF BAL Draft 2022 -0.2
Luis Vázquez 3B/SS BAL Trade 2025 -0.2
Greg Allen OF BAL Free agency 2025 -0.3
Anthony Bemboom C BAL Free agency 2022 -0.3
Yaramil Hiraldo P BAL Draft 2025 -0.3
Coby Mayo 1B/3B BAL Draft 2024 -0.3
Mason Williams OF BAL Free agency 2019 -0.3
Dylan Carlson OF BAL Free agency 2025 -0.4
Chayce McDermott P BAL Trade 2022 -0.4
Mac Sceroler P BAL Rule 5 2020 -0.4
Thomas Eshelman P BAL Trade 2019 -0.5
Tyler Nevin 1B/3B BAL Trade 2020 -0.5
Maikel Franco 3B BAL Free agency 2021 -0.6
Maverick Handley C BAL Draft 2025 -0.6
Chris Owings 2B/SS BAL Free agency 2022 -0.6
Heston Kjerstad OF BAL Draft 2023 -0.7
Tyler O'Neill OF BAL Free agency 2024 -1.0
Dan Straily P BAL Free agency 2019 -1.1
Robinson Chirinos C BAL Free agency 2022 -1.3

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.