RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB -1.0
-1.0TAB — talent above budget16th/30
-5.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
61%dead money %25th/30
0.432win %23rd/30
26.8roster fWAR17th/30
+11surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$77Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFManuel Margot 135GWil Myers 66GFranchy Cordero 5G
LFWil Myers 98GHunter Renfroe 67GJosh Naylor 33G
RFHunter Renfroe 86GJosh Naylor 31GTravis Jankowski 5G
SSFernando Tatis Jr. 83GLuis Urías 41GManny Machado 37G
2BGreg Garcia 74GIan Kinsler 72GLuis Urías 26G
3BManny Machado 119GTy France 36GGreg Garcia 13G
1BEric Hosmer 157GWil Myers 7GSeth Mejias-Brean 5G
STARTERSChris Paddack 2.3WAREric Lauer 2.2WARJoey Lucchesi 1.8WARMatt Strahm 1.5WARDinelson Lamet 1.2WAR
CAustin Hedges 95GFrancisco Mejía 60GAustin Allen 19G
DHJosh Naylor 4GFrancisco Mejía 2GEric Hosmer 1G
BULLPEN★ Kirby Yates 41svCraig Stammen 31hTrey Wingenter 16hLuis Perdomo 7hRobbie Erlin 5hAdam Warren 3hGerardo Reyes 1hMichel Baez 0h
CAustin Hedges 95 · Francisco Mejía 60 · Austin Allen 19
1BEric Hosmer 157 · Wil Myers 7 · Seth Mejias-Brean 5
2BGreg Garcia 74 · Ian Kinsler 72 · Luis Urías 26
3BManny Machado 119 · Ty France 36 · Greg Garcia 13
SSFernando Tatis Jr. 83 · Luis Urías 41 · Manny Machado 37
LFWil Myers 98 · Hunter Renfroe 67 · Josh Naylor 33
CFManuel Margot 135 · Wil Myers 66 · Franchy Cordero 5
RFHunter Renfroe 86 · Josh Naylor 31 · Travis Jankowski 5
DHJosh Naylor 4 · Francisco Mejía 2 · Eric Hosmer 1
SPChris Paddack 2.3 · Eric Lauer 2.2 · Joey Lucchesi 1.8 · Matt Strahm 1.5 · Dinelson Lamet 1.2
BP★ Kirby Yates 41 · Craig Stammen 31 · Trey Wingenter 16 · Luis Perdomo 7 · Robbie Erlin 5 · Adam Warren 3 · Gerardo Reyes 1 · Michel Baez 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kirby Yates 32 arb 603.4 3.1 +8.2
Fernando Tatis Jr. 20 pre-arb 843.0 0.6 +9.2
Manny Machado 26 FA-elig 1562.5 12.0 -3.8
Chris Paddack 23 pre-arb 262.3 0.6 +6.8
Eric Lauer 24 pre-arb 302.2 0.6 +6.5
Hunter Renfroe 27 arb 1401.8 0.6 +5.3
Joey Lucchesi 26 pre-arb 301.8 0.6 +5.2
Manuel Margot 24 arb 1511.6 0.6 +4.8
Matt Strahm 27 arb 471.5 0.6 +4.3
Austin Hedges 26 arb 1021.4 2.1 +2.5
Dinelson Lamet 26 pre-arb 141.2 0.6 +3.5
Franmil Reyes↔ CLE 23 pre-arb 991.2 0.4 +3.4
Cal Quantrill 24 – 231.1 0.4 +3.1
Greg Garcia 29 arb 1341.0 0.9 +2.5
Wil Myers 28 FA-elig 1550.8 5.5 -2.7
Luis Perdomo 26 pre-arb 470.7 0.4 +1.9
Trey Wingenter 25 pre-arb 510.7 0.6 +1.6
Francisco Mejía 23 pre-arb 790.5 0.6 +1.2
Robbie Erlin 28 FA-elig 370.5 1.4 +0.1
Andrés Muñoz 20 – 220.4 0.2 +1.0
Craig Stammen 35 FA-elig 760.4 2.2 -1.0
Gerardo Reyes 26 – 270.3 0.2 +0.7
Pedro Avila 22 – 10.1 0.0 +0.5
Seth Mejias-Brean 28 – 140.1 0.1 +0.4
Michel Baez 23 – 240.1 0.2 +0.2
Matt Wisler↔ SEA 26 arb 210.1 0.3 +0.1
Adrian Morejon 20 – 50.1 0.2 +0.1
Franchy Cordero 24 pre-arb 90.1 0.6 -0.2
Aaron Loup 31 FA-elig 40.1 1.2 -0.9
Ian Kinsler 37 FA-elig 870.1 3.8 -3.6
Eric Yardley 28 – 100.1 0.1 +0.1
Luis Torrens 23 pre-arb 70.0 0.0 +0.1
José Castillo 23 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Logan Allen↔ CLE 22 – 8-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Carl Edwards Jr.↔ CHC 27 arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Nick Martini↔ OAK 29 pre-arb 26-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Ty France 24 – 69-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Miguel Díaz 24 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Luis Urías 22 pre-arb 71-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Garrett Richards 31 FA-elig 3-0.1 7.0 -7.2
Nick Margevicius 23 – 17-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Ronald Bolaños 22 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Travis Jankowski 28 arb 25-0.1 1.2 -1.5
José Pirela↔ PHI 29 arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Robert Stock 29 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.6 -0.9
David Bednar 24 – 13-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Phil Maton↔ CLE 26 pre-arb 21-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Javy Guerra 23 – 8-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Alex Dickerson↔ SFG 29 – 12-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Josh Naylor 22 – 94-0.3 0.4 -1.3
Austin Allen 25 – 34-0.3 0.3 -1.3
Brad Wieck↔ CHC 27 – 30-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Adam Warren 31 FA-elig 25-0.8 2.0 -4.6
Eric Hosmer 29 FA-elig 160-0.9 21.0 -24.0

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Fernando Tatis Jr.3.0
Manny Machado2.5
Chris Paddack2.3
Dinelson Lamet1.2
Cal Quantrill1.1
Greg Garcia1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Freddy Galvis2.2
Christian Villanueva1.7
Adam Cimber1.1
Tyson Ross0.8
Cory Spangenberg0.7
Brad Hand0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$77.2M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Eric Hosmer297.146$21.0MFREE AGENT
Manny Machado266.056$12.0MFREE AGENT
Garrett Richards316.148$7.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Kinsler3713.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Craig Stammen357.160$2.2MFREE AGENT
Adam Warren316.036$2.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Loup316.040$1.2MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Wil Myers285.104$5.5MFREE AGENT
Kirby Yates324.021$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Erlin284.078$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Garcia293.083$910kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.274.000$136kARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra233.148$87kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Pirela293.002$82kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (40)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Austin Hedges262.166$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski282.169$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Renfroe271.165$582kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Strahm272.064$582kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Margot242.012$577kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dinelson Lamet261.130$567kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Lucchesi261.000$565kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Lauer240.160$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Díaz241.047$560kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Castillo230.121$560kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franchy Cordero241.038$560kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stock290.085$560kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Wingenter250.057$557kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Urías220.034$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía230.062$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Paddack230.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis Jr.200.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Martini290.028$453kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perdomo262.111$436kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Maton261.106$394kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Quantrill240.000$391kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franmil Reyes230.115$377kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Naylor220.000$352kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Margevicius230.000$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Allen250.000$298kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wisler262.042$272kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France240.000$263kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrés Muñoz200.000$239kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon200.000$215kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michel Baez230.000$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerardo Reyes260.000$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wieck270.020$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Allen22–$106k
Eric Yardley280.000$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bednar240.000$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Bolaños220.000$84kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Mejias-Brean28–$81k
Alex Dickerson292.146$53kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Torrens231.000$42kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Avila220.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.