RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.55× league · TAB +4.2
+4.2TAB — talent above budget13th/30
-5.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
19%dead money %6th/30
0.506win %15th/30
43.8roster fWAR7th/30
-64surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$238Mpayroll $M3rd/30

Roster

CFTrent Grisham 153GJosé Azócar 17GFernando Tatis Jr. 5G
LFJuan Soto 154GJurickson Profar 95GJosé Azócar 9G
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 137GJosé Azócar 21GRougned Odor 9G
SSXander Bogaerts 146GHa-Seong Kim 20GMatthew Batten 2G
2BHa-Seong Kim 106GJake Cronenworth 35GRougned Odor 30G
3BManny Machado 105GHa-Seong Kim 32GMatthew Batten 17G
1BJake Cronenworth 106GGarrett Cooper 82GJi Man Choi 17G
STARTERSBlake Snell 4.1WARSeth Lugo 2.9WARMichael Wacha 2.6WARYu Darvish 2.4WARJoe Musgrove 2.1WAR
CGary Sánchez 66GAustin Nola 52GLuis Campusano 42G
DHMatt Carpenter 53GNelson Cruz 42GGarrett Cooper 36G
BULLPEN★ Josh Hader 33svSteven Wilson 22hLuis García 10hTim Hill 9hRobert Suarez 8hScott Barlow 7hTom Cosgrove 7hRay Kerr 0h
CGary Sánchez 66 · Austin Nola 52 · Luis Campusano 42
1BJake Cronenworth 106 · Garrett Cooper 82 · Ji Man Choi 17
2BHa-Seong Kim 106 · Jake Cronenworth 35 · Rougned Odor 30
3BManny Machado 105 · Ha-Seong Kim 32 · Matthew Batten 17
SSXander Bogaerts 146 · Ha-Seong Kim 20 · Matthew Batten 2
LFJuan Soto 154 · Jurickson Profar 95 · José Azócar 9
CFTrent Grisham 153 · José Azócar 17 · Fernando Tatis Jr. 5
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 137 · José Azócar 21 · Rougned Odor 9
DHMatt Carpenter 53 · Nelson Cruz 42 · Garrett Cooper 36
SPBlake Snell 4.1 · Seth Lugo 2.9 · Michael Wacha 2.6 · Yu Darvish 2.4 · Joe Musgrove 2.1
BP★ Josh Hader 33 · Steven Wilson 22 · Luis García 10 · Tim Hill 9 · Robert Suarez 8 · Scott Barlow 7 · Tom Cosgrove 7 · Ray Kerr 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Juan Soto 24 arb 1626.2 23.0 +1.5
Xander Bogaerts 30 FA-elig 1554.6 25.5 -7.2
Ha-Seong Kim 27 pre-arb 1524.2 7.0 +9.7
Blake Snell 30 FA-elig 324.1 16.6 -0.2
Fernando Tatis Jr. 24 arb 1414.0 7.7 +8.3
Manny Machado 30 FA-elig 1383.4 17.1 -3.7
Seth Lugo 33 FA-elig 262.9 7.5 +3.9
Michael Wacha 31 FA-elig 242.6 7.5 +3.0
Yu Darvish 36 FA-elig 242.4 25.0 -15.3
Joe Musgrove 30 FA-elig 172.1 20.0 -11.5
Gary Sánchez↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 721.8 1.4 +5.5
Josh Hader 29 FA-elig 611.7 14.1 -7.2
Trent Grisham 26 arb 1531.7 3.2 +3.5
Nick Martinez 32 FA-elig 631.4 10.0 -4.5
Luis Campusano 24 arb 491.0 0.7 +3.4
Jake Cronenworth 29 arb 1270.8 4.2 -1.2
Pedro Avila 26 pre-arb 140.7 0.3 +2.3
Tom Cosgrove 27 – 540.6 0.6 +1.9
Scott Barlow↔ KCR 30 arb 250.5 2.1 -0.0
Steven Wilson 28 pre-arb 520.4 0.7 +1.0
Matthew Batten 28 pre-arb 430.4 0.3 +1.3
Rougned Odor 29 FA-elig 590.3 0.8 +0.5
Drew Carlton 27 pre-arb 110.2 0.5 +0.5
Eguy Rosario 23 pre-arb 110.2 0.6 +0.4
Garrett Cooper↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 410.2 1.3 -0.5
Ray Kerr 28 pre-arb 220.1 0.3 +0.2
Jurickson Profar↔ COL 30 FA-elig 140.1 0.9 -0.4
Jackson Wolf 24 – 10.1 0.0 +0.4
Luis García 36 FA-elig 610.1 3.8 -3.3
Matt Waldron 26 – 80.1 0.2 +0.2
Alek Jacob 25 – 30.1 0.3 -0.0
Adrian Morejon 24 arb 80.0 0.8 -0.7
Robert Suarez 32 pre-arb 270.0 10.0 -10.0
Jose Espada 26 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Ryan Weathers↔ MIA 23 pre-arb 12-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Chandler Seagle 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
José Castillo 27 arb 1-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Alfonso Rivas III↔ PIT 26 – 8-0.1 – –
Domingo Tapia 31 arb 15-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Nick Hernandez 28 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Ben Gamel 31 FA-elig 6-0.1 0.1 -0.6
José Azocar 27 pre-arb 55-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Taylor Kohlwey 28 – 5-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Brandon Dixon 31 pre-arb 33-0.2 0.3 -1.0
David Dahl 29 FA-elig 4-0.2 1.2 -2.0
Brent Honeywell↔ CHW 28 pre-arb 36-0.2 0.7 -1.6
Adam Engel 31 FA-elig 5-0.2 1.0 -2.0
Nelson Cruz 42 FA-elig 49-0.3 1.0 -2.1
Reiss Knehr 26 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.4 -1.5
Nabil Crismatt↔ ARI 28 arb 7-0.3 0.7 -1.9
Rich Hill↔ PIT 43 FA-elig 10-0.4 2.5 -4.0
Ji Man Choi↔ PIT 32 FA-elig 16-0.4 1.9 -3.4
Matt Carpenter 37 FA-elig 76-0.4 6.5 -8.2
Tim Hill 33 arb 48-0.4 1.9 -3.6
Brett Sullivan 29 – 33-0.5 0.3 -2.2
Austin Nola 33 arb 52-0.9 2.4 -5.9

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Xander Bogaerts4.6
Fernando Tatis Jr.4.0
Seth Lugo2.9
Michael Wacha2.6
Gary Sánchez1.8
Tom Cosgrove0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Taylor Rogers1.3
Sean Manaea1.1
Wil Myers1.0
MacKenzie Gore0.8
Luke Voit0.5
Mike Clevinger0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$237.6M
2024 guaranteed
$78.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Xander Bogaerts309.042$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M
Yu Darvish3611.000$25.0M$16.0M$21.0M$16.0M$15.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Musgrove306.063$20.0M$20.0M$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Manny Machado3010.056$17.1M$17.1M$17.1M$25.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M
Blake Snell306.072$16.6MFREE AGENT
Seth Lugo336.082$7.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Wacha319.062$7.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter3711.012$6.5MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill4313.127$2.5MFREE AGENT
Ji Man Choi327.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Gary Sánchez306.086$1.4MFREE AGENT
David Dahl297.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz4218.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Engel316.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jurickson Profar308.165$868kFREE AGENT
Rougned Odor299.000$800kFREE AGENT
Ben Gamel316.029$93kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Juan Soto244.134$23.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hader295.115$14.1MFREE AGENT
Nick Martinez324.002$10.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis Jr.244.000$7.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cronenworth293.000$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Grisham263.060$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Nola333.106$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Barlow304.030$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Hill334.112$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Cooper325.053$1.3MFREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon243.013$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Castillo273.125$730kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Robert Suarez321.000$10.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ha-Seong Kim272.000$7.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García361.164$3.8MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Tapia310.168$735kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wilson281.000$726kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Azocar270.049$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Campusano240.144$723kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nabil Crismatt282.033$656kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Honeywell280.166$652kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Cosgrove270.000$612kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eguy Rosario230.041$585kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weathers231.001$582kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Carlton270.046$515kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reiss Knehr260.037$399kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Jacob250.000$333kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Dixon311.151$314kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Sullivan290.000$306kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Avila260.025$279kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Batten280.058$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Kerr280.037$263kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Waldron260.000$194kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Kohlwey28–$81k
Nick Hernandez280.000$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Espada260.000$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chandler Seagle27–$8k
Jackson Wolf24–$4k
Alfonso Rivas III26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.