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Padres SDP

202673–65 (0.529)
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GM: AJ Preller · partial season

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2026, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$186M
Surplus $M
-21
Win %
0.529
TAB
-1.8
WAB
+1.6
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
34.2
Dead money %
35%
Depth Players
7.0
Dead WAR
-3.6
Farm System
Total Proj. WAR
47.9
Pitching Proj. WAR
14.8
Hitting Proj. WAR
33.1

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2026 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

RFreddy Fermin83
RLuis Campusano48
Rodolfo Durán37
Blake Hunt2

1B

RTy France106
LGavin Sheets43
LJake Cronenworth4
RMiguel Andujar3
RNick Castellanos3

2B

LJake Cronenworth77
RFernando Tatis Jr.43
LSung-Mun Song28
LWill Wagner4
BLuis Rengifo⇄3
RNick Solak1

3B

RManny Machado119
BLuis Rengifo⇄23
LSung-Mun Song13
RMiguel Andujar7
RTy France3
LGage Workman⇄2
LWill Wagner2
LJake Cronenworth1

SS

RXander Bogaerts129
LSung-Mun Song17
LJake Cronenworth2

LF

RRamón Laureano45
LGavin Sheets38
Jase Bowen30
RSamad Taylor23
BLuis Rengifo⇄9
RAustin Hays⇄7
BBryce Johnson7
LDustin Harris⇄6
RNick Castellanos4
LGage Workman⇄1

CF

LJackson Merrill134
BBryce Johnson5
Jase Bowen3

RF

RFernando Tatis Jr.103
Jase Bowen23
RNick Castellanos19
BBryce Johnson9
RRamón Laureano6
RSamad Taylor6
LGavin Sheets4
RAustin Hays⇄1

DH

RMiguel Andujar60
LGavin Sheets30
RManny Machado16
LWill Wagner10
RNick Castellanos7
BBryce Johnson5
Jase Bowen4
RAustin Hays⇄3
BLuis Rengifo⇄3
RLuis Campusano3
RTy France3
RNick Solak3
LJake Cronenworth2
RXander Bogaerts2
RFreddy Fermin1
RFernando Tatis Jr.1
RRamón Laureano1
LSung-Mun Song1

Starters

RMichael King2.2 WAR
RBradgley Rodriguez1.5 WAR
RWalker Buehler1.5 WAR
RRandy Vasquez1.0 WAR
RNick Pivetta0.9 WAR
LKyle Hart0.8 WAR
LWandy Peralta0.3 WAR
RGriffin Canning0.1 WAR
LJP Sears0.0 WAR
RMatt Waldron⇄-0.1 WAR
LRobbie Ray⇄-0.2 WAR
RCasey Mize⇄-0.2 WAR
RLucas Giolito-0.2 WAR
RGerman Marquez-0.6 WAR

Bullpen

★ RMason Miller32 sv
LAdrian Morejon22 h
RJason Adam17 h
RJeremiah Estrada12 h
RBradgley Rodriguez11 h
LYuki Matsui8 h
LKyle Hart7 h
RRon Marinaccio⇄0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; ⇄ marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Ty France3.0
Walker Buehler1.5
Samad Taylor0.7
Luis Rengifo0.7
Dustin Harris0.2
Sung-Mun Song0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Dylan Cease3.4
Robert Suarez1.9
Luis Arraez0.9
Stephen Kolek0.8
Ryan O'Hearn0.6
Elias Díaz0.4

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Padres. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2026; everyone else is shown as a 2026 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Mason Miller 2026 +3.6 +82.8 4.0 +78.8 $1.1M 2.88× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $4.0M AAV
Adrian Morejon 2026 +2.8 +57.5 3.9 +53.6 $1.4M 2.57× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $3.9M AAV
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2026 +4.5 +64.6 20.7 +43.9 $4.6M 1.79× –
Jackson Merrill 2026 +3.5 +44.2 2.1 +42.1 $0.6M 1.60× Pre-arb extension · 2026–2035 · $15.0M AAV
Manny Machado 2023–2026 +13.1 +117.3 76.4 +40.9 $5.8M 1.12× Extension · 2023–2033 · $31.8M AAV
Nick Pivetta 2025–2026 +4.7 +56.5 23.0 +33.5 $4.8M 1.49× Free Agent · 2025–2028 · $13.8M AAV
Ty France 2026 +3.5 +33.7 1.4 +32.3 $0.4M 1.20× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $1.4M AAV
Michael King 2026 +2.6 +40.7 9.0 +31.7 $3.5M 1.96× Free Agent · 2026–2028 · $25.0M AAV
Bradgley Rodriguez 2026 +1.8 +28.1 0.8 +27.4 $0.4M 1.95× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Walker Buehler 2026 +1.8 +21.3 1.5 +19.8 $0.8M 1.49× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $1.5M AAV
Randy Vásquez 2026 +1.2 +9.4 0.8 +8.6 $0.7M 1.02× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Luis Campusano 2026 +1.5 +9.4 0.9 +8.5 $0.6M 0.76× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.9M AAV
Xander Bogaerts 2023–2026 +11.7 +109.0 101.8 +7.2 $8.7M 1.15× Free Agent · 2023–2033 · $25.5M AAV
Samad Taylor 2026 +0.9 +5.8 0.5 +5.3 $0.6M 0.83× –
Kyle Hart 2026 +1.0 +5.3 1.0 +4.3 $1.0M 0.67× –
Luis Rengifo↔ 2026 +0.8 +3.8 0.9 +3.0 $1.1M 0.58× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $3.5M AAV
Jeremiah Estrada 2026 +0.7 +3.6 0.8 +2.8 $1.2M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Freddy Fermin 2026 +1.0 +4.2 2.1 +2.1 $2.1M 0.52× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $2.1M AAV
Dustin Harris↔ 2026 +0.3 +1.9 0.0 +1.9 $0.1M 0.83× –
Gage Workman↔ 2026 +0.1 +0.2 0.1 +0.2 $1.3M 0.58× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
David Morgan 2026 +0.0 +0.3 0.2 +0.1 $3.2M 0.67× –
Alek Jacob 2026 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 – 0.67× –
Jake Cronenworth 2024–2026 +4.7 +30.6 30.9 -0.3 $6.6M 0.82× Arb extension · 2024–2030 · $11.4M AAV
Jhony Brito 2026 -0.0 -0.2 0.8 -1.0 – 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Matt Waldron↔ 2026 -0.1 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 – 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Will Wagner 2026 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 -1.0 – 0.69× –
Miguel Andujar 2026 +0.0 +0.1 1.5 -1.4 $63.6M 0.69× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $4.0M AAV
Griffin Canning 2026 +0.2 +0.9 2.5 -1.6 $14.9M 0.67× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $2.5M AAV
Bryce Johnson 2026 -0.1 -0.9 0.8 -1.7 – 0.83× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Ramón Laureano 2025–2026 +0.9 +6.2 7.9 -1.8 $8.5M 0.83× Free Agent · 2025–2026 · $4.0M AAV
Ron Marinaccio↔ 2026 -0.3 -1.7 0.7 -2.3 – 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
JP Sears 2026 +0.0 +0.0 2.8 -2.7 $461.4M 1.02× –
Austin Hays↔ 2026 -0.1 -1.0 2.4 -3.4 – 0.83× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $6.0M AAV
Casey Mize↔ 2026 -0.2 -1.9 1.5 -3.4 – 1.02× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $6.2M AAV
Lucas Giolito 2026 -0.2 -1.9 1.5 -3.4 – 1.02× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $3.0M AAV
Gavin Sheets 2026 +0.2 +0.7 4.5 -3.8 $28.3M 0.56× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $4.5M AAV
Robbie Ray↔ 2026 -0.2 -1.6 4.6 -6.2 – 1.02× Free Agent · 2022–2026 · $23.0M AAV
Jason Adam 2026 -0.1 -0.7 6.7 -7.4 – 0.67× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $6.7M AAV
Nick Castellanos 2026 -1.0 -6.6 0.8 -7.4 – 0.83× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Germán Márquez 2026 -0.7 -5.9 1.8 -7.6 – 1.02× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $1.8M AAV
Wandy Peralta 2024–2026 +0.4 +2.1 12.1 -10.0 $31.3M 0.67× Free Agent · 2024–2027 · $4.1M AAV
Yuki Matsui 2024–2026 +0.4 +1.9 14.5 -12.6 $41.3M 0.67× Free agent · 2024–2028 · $5.6M AAV
Nick Solak 2026 -0.1 -0.4 – – – 0.69× –
Sung-Mun Song 2026 +0.3 +1.2 – – – 0.56× –
Total—+65.0+719.5351.3+367.9—

Trades

Every graded 2026 deal involving the Padres — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 4 total.

2026 · PIT / SDP Aug 3, 2026
PIT · Ben Cherington +$0.0M
Andrew Moore
SDP · AJ Preller +$0.0M
Hunter Stratton
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · PIT / SDP Jul 23, 2026
PIT · Ben Cherington +$0.0M
Ron Marinaccio
SDP · AJ Preller +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · DET / SDP Aug 3, 2026
DET · Scott Harris +$1.6M
Kash Mayfield, Jackson Wolf
SDP · AJ Preller −$1.6M
Casey Mize, Gage Workman
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · SFG / SDP Aug 3, 2026
SFG · Buster Posey +$4.8M
Miguel Mendez, Joniel Hernandez
SDP · AJ Preller −$4.8M
Robbie Ray
Too soon to call unsettled

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$185.5M
luxury tax $222M
2027 guaranteed
$184.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$189M$180M$146M$84M$84M$72M
Proj. arbitration$19M
Proj. pre-arbitration$15M$1M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$240M$199M$164M$102M$102M$90M
Tax space+$4M+$48M+$86M+$151M+$154M+$169M
Est. tax bill——————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Xander Bogaerts3312.042$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M
Manny Machado3313.056$25.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M
Fernando Tatis Jr.277.000$20.7MFREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta337.166$20.5M$14.0MOPT-OUT$18.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Jake Cronenworth326.000$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3MFREE AGENT
Michael King316.004$9.0M$32.0MOPT-OUT$34.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano316.159$6.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Yuki Matsui302.000$5.8M$6.5MOPT-OUT$7.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Robbie Ray3411.007$4.6MFREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta348.168$4.5MOPT-OUT$4.5MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Griffin Canning306.075$2.5M$5.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Austin Hays306.057$2.4M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Jackson Merrill232.000$2.1M$7.1M$9.1M$11.1M$21.1M$21.1M$21.1M
Germán Márquez319.027$1.8M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Lucas Giolito318.080$1.5M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Walker Buehler317.168$1.5MFREE AGENT
Miguel Andujar316.053$1.5M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Ty France316.089$1.4MFREE AGENT
Kyle Hart331.022$1.0M$2.5MCLUBARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Rengifo296.043$880k$10.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos3412.029$780kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Jason Adam345.132$6.7MFREE AGENT
Gavin Sheets304.076$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon275.140$3.9MFREE AGENT
JP Sears303.065$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Mize295.111$1.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Campusano273.003$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Solak315.126—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Mason Miller272.166$4.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Fermin312.165$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremiah Estrada272.069$810kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Vásquez271.129$809kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Johnson301.097$805kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhony Brito282.048$792kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradgley Rodriguez220.020$783kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Marinaccio302.064$650kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Wagner270.151$596kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Waldron291.107$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samad Taylor271.071$484kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Morgan260.134$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gage Workman26–$65k
Dustin Harris260.061$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Jacob281.059$18kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sung-Mun Song29–—

Graphs

How each 2026 acquisition stacked onto Padres's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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