SDP⇄HOU

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan StrailyP·27y·R/R

+$13.4M+$13.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#723 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2016 odds 60% → 58% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Erik KratzC·36y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.