WSN⇄SDP

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$156.8M net +18.8

received +$114.4M+$114.4M ± $79M expected surplus · +$219.2M realized received 24.9 ± 10 expected · 25.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

CJ AbramsSS·21y·L/R

+$52.6M+$52.6M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$65.6M 8.7± 5 exp WARrealized 10.1

Prior

Composite #9.0 prospect (Baseball America #9 (2022) / MLB Pipeline #9 (2022)) → 1.58/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.58/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Robert HassellOF·20y·L/L

+$25.4M+$25.4M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 4.8± 5 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#8 overall draft pick → 0.88/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.88/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MacKenzie GoreP·23y·L/L

+$21.7M+$21.7M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$52.0M 5.5± 5 exp WARrealized 7.4

Prior

#3 overall draft pick → 1.00/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Luke Voit1B/DH·31y·R/R

+$8.9M+$8.9M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

1.16/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jarlin SusanaP·18y·R/R

+$4.4M+$4.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

MLB Pipeline intl top-50 #31 signee (2022) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

James WoodOF·19y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$107.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 8.5

Prior

#62 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$156.8M net -18.8

received +$156.0M+$139.2M ± $34M expected surplus · +$62.4M realized received 13.6 ± 4 expected · 6.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2022 odds 36% → 41% (+4.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan SotoOF·23y·L/L

+$150.6M+$150.6M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$73.6M 11.8± 4 exp WARrealized 7.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 6.4/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

3.94/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Josh Bell1B/DH·29y·B/R

+$5.1M−$11.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.22/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.