SDP⇄MIA

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$24.0M net +4.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$20.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris PaddackP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

#236 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Michael Hill net −$24.0M net -4.6

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2016 odds 24% → 23% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fernando RodneyP·39y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.