SDP⇄OAK

SDPSDP Josh Byrnes net +$11.2M net +2.0

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $44M expected surplus · +$20.8M realized received 7.8 ± 6 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2015 odds 2% → 3% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Derek NorrisC·26y·R/R

+$31.1M+$31.1M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 6.5± 5 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.63/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Seth StreichP·24y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#199 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$11.2M net -2.0

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $60M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 4.3 ± 8 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2015 odds 3% → 2% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesse HahnP·25y·R/R

+$11.8M+$11.8M± $52M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 3.3± 6 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

#191 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

R. J. AlvarezP·24y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#114 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.