SDP⇄NYM⇄PIT

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$36.8M net +2.3

received +$19.2M+$36.0M ± $44M expected surplus · +$64.0M realized received 10.9 ± 6 expected · 9.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2021 odds 18% → 21% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe MusgroveP·28y·R/R

+$19.4M+$35.7M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$64.0M 10.9± 6 exp WARrealized 9.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.78/yr blended

Horizon

7.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$2.4M net +0.2

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $39M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 3.2 ± 5 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2021 odds 23% → 26% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joey LucchesiP·28y·L/L

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 3.2± 5 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

#114 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net −$39.2M net -2.5

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $47M expected surplus · +$24.8M realized received 5.5 ± 6 expected · 7.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hudson HeadCF·20y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#84 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Drake FellowsP·23y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#173 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Endy RodríguezC·21y·S/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Omar CruzP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

David BednarP·26y·L/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$21.6M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized 6.0

Prior

#1044 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.