RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.39× league · TAB -2.7
-2.7TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-7.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-2.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
21%dead money %7th/30
0.488win %17th/30
35.6roster fWAR15th/30
-61surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$176Mpayroll $M6th/30

Roster

CFTrent Grisham 127GJake Marisnick 52GJurickson Profar 20G
LFTommy Pham 113GJurickson Profar 36GJake Marisnick 20G
RFWil Myers 118GJurickson Profar 29GFernando Tatis Jr. 20G
SSFernando Tatis Jr. 102GJake Cronenworth 41GHa-Seong Kim 35G
2BAdam Frazier 140GJake Cronenworth 94GHa-Seong Kim 21G
3BManny Machado 144GHa-Seong Kim 23GVictor Caratini 2G
1BEric Hosmer 131GJake Cronenworth 24GJurickson Profar 20G
STARTERSJoe Musgrove 2.7WARYu Darvish 2.7WARBlake Snell 2.1WARChris Paddack 1.6WARDinelson Lamet 0.6WAR
CVictor Caratini 101GAustin Nola 48GWebster Rivas 24G
DHManny Machado 3GTommy Pham 3GEric Hosmer 2G
BULLPEN★ Mark Melancon 39svTim Hill 19hEmilio Pagán 17hDaniel Hudson 16hPierce Johnson 12hAustin Adams 11hCraig Stammen 7hNabil Crismatt 3h
CVictor Caratini 101 · Austin Nola 48 · Webster Rivas 24
1BEric Hosmer 131 · Jake Cronenworth 24 · Jurickson Profar 20
2BAdam Frazier 140 · Jake Cronenworth 94 · Ha-Seong Kim 21
3BManny Machado 144 · Ha-Seong Kim 23 · Victor Caratini 2
SSFernando Tatis Jr. 102 · Jake Cronenworth 41 · Ha-Seong Kim 35
LFTommy Pham 113 · Jurickson Profar 36 · Jake Marisnick 20
CFTrent Grisham 127 · Jake Marisnick 52 · Jurickson Profar 20
RFWil Myers 118 · Jurickson Profar 29 · Fernando Tatis Jr. 20
DHManny Machado 3 · Tommy Pham 3 · Eric Hosmer 2
SPJoe Musgrove 2.7 · Yu Darvish 2.7 · Blake Snell 2.1 · Chris Paddack 1.6 · Dinelson Lamet 0.6
BP★ Mark Melancon 39 · Tim Hill 19 · Emilio Pagán 17 · Daniel Hudson 16 · Pierce Johnson 12 · Austin Adams 11 · Craig Stammen 7 · Nabil Crismatt 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Fernando Tatis Jr. 22 pre-arb 1306.8 1.7 +20.5
Manny Machado 28 FA-elig 1534.5 32.0 -17.5
Jake Cronenworth 27 pre-arb 1523.8 0.6 +11.6
Yu Darvish 34 FA-elig 302.7 22.0 -13.1
Joe Musgrove 28 arb 402.7 4.5 +4.2
Trent Grisham 24 pre-arb 1322.6 0.6 +7.7
Wil Myers 30 FA-elig 1462.2 22.5 -15.4
Blake Snell 28 arb 272.1 11.1 -4.4
Chris Paddack 25 pre-arb 241.6 0.6 +4.4
Austin Nola 31 pre-arb 561.2 0.6 +3.3
Mark Melancon 36 FA-elig 641.1 2.0 +1.4
Tommy Pham 33 FA-elig 1551.1 8.9 -5.5
Eric Hosmer 31 FA-elig 1510.9 21.0 -18.2
Pierce Johnson 30 arb 630.8 2.0 +0.7
Craig Stammen 37 FA-elig 670.8 4.0 -1.5
Dinelson Lamet 28 arb 220.6 4.2 -2.2
Adam Frazier↔ PIT 29 arb 570.6 1.6 +0.4
Drew Pomeranz 32 FA-elig 270.5 8.0 -6.5
Ha-Seong Kim 25 – 1170.4 7.0 -5.8
Webster Rivas 30 – 240.3 0.2 +0.9
Austin Adams 30 pre-arb 650.2 0.6 +0.2
Matt Strahm 29 arb 60.1 2.0 -1.6
Jorge Mateo↔ BAL 26 – 570.1 0.2 +0.2
Shaun Anderson↔ BAL 26 pre-arb 50.1 0.0 +0.2
Patrick Kivlehan 31 pre-arb 50.1 0.0 +0.2
Javy Guerra 25 pre-arb 50.1 0.6 -0.4
Nabil Crismatt 26 pre-arb 450.1 0.5 -0.3
James Norwood 27 pre-arb 50.1 0.1 +0.2
Mason Thompson↔ WSN 23 – 40.1 0.0 +0.2
Daniel Hudson↔ WSN 34 FA-elig 230.1 2.6 -2.4
Taylor Williams↔ MIA 29 – 50.0 0.2 -0.1
Daniel Camarena 28 pre-arb 60.0 0.1 +0.1
Ivan Castillo 26 – 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Victor Caratini 27 arb 1160.0 1.3 -1.2
Nick Ramirez 31 pre-arb 130.0 0.2 -0.1
Ryan Weathers 21 pre-arb 320.0 0.5 -0.5
Brian O'Grady 29 pre-arb 320.0 0.7 -0.6
John Andreoli 31 pre-arb 70.0 0.0 +0.0
Jake Marisnick↔ CHC 30 FA-elig 34-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Tucupita Marcano 21 – 25-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Pedro Avila 24 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Jake Arrieta↔ CHC 35 FA-elig 4-0.0 1.0 -1.1
Dan Altavilla 28 arb 2-0.1 0.8 -1.1
Keone Kela 28 FA-elig 12-0.1 1.2 -1.5
Reiss Knehr 24 – 12-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Miguel Díaz 26 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Aaron Northcraft 31 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Adrian Morejon 22 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.6 -1.1
Vince Velasquez↔ PHI 29 FA-elig 4-0.2 0.6 -1.3
Tim Hill 31 pre-arb 78-0.2 0.6 -1.3
Ross Detwiler↔ MIA 35 FA-elig 7-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Jurickson Profar 28 FA-elig 137-0.3 4.5 -5.4
Luis Campusano 22 pre-arb 11-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Emilio Pagán 30 arb 67-0.4 1.6 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Yu Darvish2.7
Joe Musgrove2.7
Blake Snell2.1
Mark Melancon1.1
Adam Frazier0.6
Ha-Seong Kim0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Zach Davies1.4
Garrett Richards0.7
Trevor Rosenthal0.6
Ty France0.3
Cal Quantrill0.2
Joey Lucchesi0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$176.4M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Manny Machado288.056$32.0MFREE AGENT
Wil Myers307.104$22.5MFREE AGENT
Yu Darvish349.000$22.0MFREE AGENT
Eric Hosmer319.146$21.0MFREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz328.013$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jurickson Profar286.165$4.5MFREE AGENT
Craig Stammen379.160$4.0MFREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson3410.106$2.6MFREE AGENT
Mark Melancon3610.098$2.0MFREE AGENT
Keone Kela286.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta359.145$960kFREE AGENT
Jake Marisnick308.000$343kFREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler358.011$112kFREE AGENT
Aaron Northcraft318.015$34kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Blake Snell284.072$11.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham335.107$8.9MFREE AGENT
Joe Musgrove284.063$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dinelson Lamet283.130$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Strahm294.064$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Frazier294.075$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán303.091$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Caratini273.051$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla283.063$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vince Velasquez295.086$615kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Ha-Seong Kim250.000$7.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pierce Johnson301.137$2.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis Jr.222.000$1.7MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian O'Grady290.073$650kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Paddack252.000$611kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Hill312.112$596kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Grisham241.060$589kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cronenworth271.000$585kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams302.015$580kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra251.052$573kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon221.013$573kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Nola311.106$572kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weathers210.168$518kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nabil Crismatt260.050$472kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Díaz262.026$294kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Mateo261.000$246kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Williams292.034$220kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Webster Rivas30–$199k
Nick Ramirez311.021$163kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucupita Marcano210.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reiss Knehr240.000$95kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Campusano220.067$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Camarena280.001$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Norwood271.070$52kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Anderson261.091$32kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Thompson230.000$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Andreoli310.052$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Kivlehan311.036$15kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ivan Castillo26–$9k
Pedro Avila240.002$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.