PIT⇄SDP

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$0.8M net +0.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2025 odds 2% → 2% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett SullivanC·31y·L/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#508 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.12/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2025 odds 28% → 28% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.