SDP⇄ATL

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$32.0M net +1.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Héctor Olivera3B·31y·R/R

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #55.0 pedigree (Baseball America #55 (2016)) → 0.49/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.47 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Hart net −$32.0M net -1.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$32.0M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt KempOF·31y·R/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$32.0M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.73/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.