SDP⇄ANA

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$0.0M net +0.2

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $10M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.5 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jason CastroC·33y·L/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.51/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Gerardo ReyesP·27y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.