BOS⇄SDP

BOSBOS Dave Dombrowski net +$20.0M net +3.1

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$20.0M realized received 2.9 ± 2 expected · 3.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2016 odds 86% → 88% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew PomeranzP·27y·R/L

+$10.9M+$10.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 2.9± 2 exp WARrealized 3.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.57/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$20.0M net -3.1

received +$24.8M+$24.8M ± $43M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 6.2 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anderson EspinozaP·18y·R/R

+$24.7M+$24.7M± $43M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 6.2± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #19.0 prospect (Baseball America #19 (2016)) → 1.12/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.