RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.61× league · TAB -11.3
-11.3TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-7.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-8.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
70%dead money %28th/30
0.420win %27th/30
16.8roster fWAR29th/30
-22surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$76Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFTravis Jankowski 87GJon Jay 72GManuel Margot 9G
LFAlex Dickerson 68GTravis Jankowski 9GJon Jay 8G
RFMatt Kemp 97GOswaldo Arcia 39GTravis Jankowski 22G
SSLuis Sardinas 50GAdam Rosales 15GAlexi Amarista 12G
2BRyan Schimpf 68GAdam Rosales 36GAlexi Amarista 28G
3BYangervis Solarte 95GBrett Wallace 42GAdam Rosales 41G
1BWil Myers 149GBrett Wallace 20GDerek Norris 3G
STARTERSChristian Friedrich 1.5WARClayton Richard 0.4WAREdwin Jackson 0.3WARLuis Perdomo 0.2WARPaul Clemens 0.1WAR
CDerek Norris 116GChristian Bethancourt 41GHéctor Sánchez 14G
DHBrett Wallace 3GChristian Bethancourt 2GAlex Dickerson 2G
BULLPEN★ Brandon Maurer 13svBrad Hand 21hRyan Buchter 20hKevin Quackenbush 9hCarlos Villanueva 4hJosé Domínguez 1hMatt Thornton 0hLeonel Campos 0h
CDerek Norris 116 · Christian Bethancourt 41 · Héctor Sánchez 14
1BWil Myers 149 · Brett Wallace 20 · Derek Norris 3
2BRyan Schimpf 68 · Adam Rosales 36 · Alexi Amarista 28
3BYangervis Solarte 95 · Brett Wallace 42 · Adam Rosales 41
SSLuis Sardinas 50 · Adam Rosales 15 · Alexi Amarista 12
LFAlex Dickerson 68 · Travis Jankowski 9 · Jon Jay 8
CFTravis Jankowski 87 · Jon Jay 72 · Manuel Margot 9
RFMatt Kemp 97 · Oswaldo Arcia 39 · Travis Jankowski 22
DHBrett Wallace 3 · Christian Bethancourt 2 · Alex Dickerson 2
SPChristian Friedrich 1.5 · Clayton Richard 0.4 · Edwin Jackson 0.3 · Luis Perdomo 0.2 · Paul Clemens 0.1
BP★ Brandon Maurer 13 · Brad Hand 21 · Ryan Buchter 20 · Kevin Quackenbush 9 · Carlos Villanueva 4 · José Domínguez 1 · Matt Thornton 0 · Leonel Campos 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Wil Myers 25 arb 1573.3 0.5 +10.3
Ryan Schimpf 28 pre-arb 892.5 0.3 +7.8
Drew Pomeranz↔ BOS 27 arb 172.4 0.7 +7.2
Yangervis Solarte 28 pre-arb 1092.2 0.5 +6.5
Adam Rosales 33 FA-elig 1051.7 0.8 +4.6
Christian Friedrich 28 pre-arb 241.5 0.4 +4.5
Brad Hand 26 pre-arb 821.5 0.5 +4.3
B.J. Upton↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 921.2 9.5 -5.5
Ryan Buchter 29 pre-arb 671.1 0.5 +3.1
Travis Jankowski 25 pre-arb 1310.9 0.5 +2.3
Fernando Rodney↔ MIA 39 FA-elig 280.8 0.7 +2.0
Brandon Maurer 25 arb 710.8 0.5 +2.1
Alex Dickerson 26 pre-arb 840.7 0.3 +1.9
Hunter Renfroe 24 – 110.6 0.0 +1.9
Jon Jay 31 FA-elig 900.5 6.8 -5.2
James Shields↔ CHW 34 FA-elig 110.5 7.0 -5.5
Derek Norris 27 arb 1250.4 2.9 -1.7
Clayton Richard↔ CHC 32 FA-elig 110.4 0.6 +0.6
Colin Rea↔ MIA 25 pre-arb 200.3 0.5 +0.6
Edwin Jackson↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 160.3 0.3 +0.5
Buddy Baumann 28 pre-arb 110.3 0.1 +0.7
Luis Sardinas↔ SEA 23 pre-arb 340.2 0.3 +0.5
Cory Spangenberg 25 pre-arb 140.2 0.5 +0.2
Luis Perdomo 23 pre-arb 360.2 0.5 +0.2
Manuel Margot 21 – 100.2 0.0 +0.6
Andrew Cashner↔ MIA 29 FA-elig 160.1 4.1 -3.7
Tyson Ross 29 FA-elig 10.1 9.6 -9.3
Paul Clemens↔ MIA 28 pre-arb 160.1 0.2 +0.1
Jabari Blash 26 pre-arb 380.1 0.5 -0.3
José Torres 22 – 40.0 0.0 +0.1
Christian Bethancourt 24 arb 730.0 0.5 -0.4
Héctor Sánchez↔ CHW 26 arb 260.0 0.2 -0.1
Michael Kirkman↔ MIL 29 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Robbie Erlin 25 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Tyron Guerrero 25 – 1-0.0 – –
Brandon Morrow 31 FA-elig 18-0.0 0.1 -0.2
César Vargas 24 – 7-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Matt Thornton 39 FA-elig 18-0.1 1.6 -1.8
Jake Smith 26 – 4-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Leonel Campos 28 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Jarred Cosart↔ MIA 26 arb 9-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Patrick Kivlehan↔ CIN 26 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Keith Hessler↔ ARI 27 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Carlos Asuaje 24 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Jemile Weeks 29 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Kevin Quackenbush 27 pre-arb 60-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Austin Hedges 23 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Nick Noonan 27 – 7-0.4 0.0 -1.2
Oswaldo Arcia↔ MIA 25 arb 14-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Brett Wallace 29 FA-elig 119-0.5 1.0 -2.6
José Pirela 26 arb 15-0.5 0.0 -1.6
José Rondon 22 – 8-0.5 0.0 -1.6
José Domínguez 25 pre-arb 34-0.5 0.3 -2.0
Matt Kemp↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 100-0.6 13.9 -16.0
Alexi Amarista 27 arb 65-0.7 1.4 -3.5
Erik Johnson↔ CHW 26 pre-arb 4-0.7 0.2 -2.6
Carlos Villanueva 32 FA-elig 51-0.7 1.5 -3.9
Alexei Ramirez↔ TBR 34 FA-elig 128-1.6 2.6 -7.7

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Ryan Schimpf2.5
Drew Pomeranz2.4
Adam Rosales1.7
Christian Friedrich1.5
Brad Hand1.5
Ryan Buchter1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Justin Upton3.4
Craig Kimbrel1.3
Yonder Alonso1.0
Will Venable1.0
Jedd Gyorko0.9
Shawn Kelley0.9

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$76.4M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Matt Kemp319.049$13.9MFREE AGENT
B.J. Upton319.126$9.5MFREE AGENT
James Shields349.125$7.0MFREE AGENT
Alexei Ramirez348.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Matt Thornton3912.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva329.030$1.5MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney3912.137$669kFREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson3210.064$338kFREE AGENT
Brandon Morrow318.091$139kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Tyson Ross294.126$9.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Jay315.134$6.8MFREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner295.126$4.1MFREE AGENT
Derek Norris273.102$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Amarista274.053$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Wallace293.003$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Rosales335.163$800kFREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz273.013$740kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Richard325.163$595kFREE AGENT
Jarred Cosart263.113$381kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Sánchez263.098$211kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Pirela263.002$3kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (37)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Brad Hand262.092$540kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Maurer252.089$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yangervis Solarte282.000$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wil Myers252.104$524kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Quackenbush271.136$521kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Buchter290.010$520kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Spangenberg251.028$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bethancourt241.014$511kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski250.047$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jabari Blash261.023$507kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perdomo230.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Erlin251.078$502kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Rea251.000$486kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jemile Weeks292.017$460kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Vargas24–$452k
Christian Friedrich282.075$397kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Schimpf281.008$308kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Dickerson260.036$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Sardinas230.143$264kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Domínguez250.119$261kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Clemens281.024$239kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Johnson260.089$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leonel Campos280.089$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Baumann281.125$139kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Hessler270.058$137kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Arcia252.020$109kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Smith26–$72k
Austin Hedges230.154$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Renfroe240.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Asuaje240.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Margot210.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Torres220.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Rondon220.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Noonan271.151$28kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Kirkman292.079$12kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Kivlehan260.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyron Guerrero250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.