RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.44× league · TAB +1.0
+1.0TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+2.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
23%dead money %9th/30
0.549win %10th/30
39.8roster fWAR10th/30
-60surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$206Mpayroll $M5th/30

2022: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTrent Grisham 148GJosé Azócar 35GWil Myers 6G
LFJurickson Profar 146GJosé Azócar 21GWil Myers 10G
RFJuan Soto 151GJosé Azócar 49GNomar Mazara 48G
SSHa-Seong Kim 131GJake Cronenworth 9GEguy Rosario 2G
2BJake Cronenworth 147GBrandon Drury 27GCJ Abrams 13G
3BManny Machado 134GBrandon Drury 67GHa-Seong Kim 24G
1BJosh Bell 124GBrandon Drury 30GWil Myers 25G
STARTERSYu Darvish 4.2WARBlake Snell 3.6WARJoe Musgrove 3.4WARSean Manaea 1.1WARMacKenzie Gore 0.8WAR
CAustin Nola 101GJorge Alfaro 65GLuis Campusano 10G
DHJosh Bell 32GBrandon Drury 26GManny Machado 15G
BULLPEN★ Josh Hader 36svLuis García 20hRobert Suarez 11hTim Hill 7hSteven Wilson 5hNabil Crismatt 5hAdrian Morejon 5hCraig Stammen 2h
CAustin Nola 101 · Jorge Alfaro 65 · Luis Campusano 10
1BJosh Bell 124 · Brandon Drury 30 · Wil Myers 25
2BJake Cronenworth 147 · Brandon Drury 27 · CJ Abrams 13
3BManny Machado 134 · Brandon Drury 67 · Ha-Seong Kim 24
SSHa-Seong Kim 131 · Jake Cronenworth 9 · Eguy Rosario 2
LFJurickson Profar 146 · José Azócar 21 · Wil Myers 10
CFTrent Grisham 148 · José Azócar 35 · Wil Myers 6
RFJuan Soto 151 · José Azócar 49 · Nomar Mazara 48
DHJosh Bell 32 · Brandon Drury 26 · Manny Machado 15
SPYu Darvish 4.2 · Blake Snell 3.6 · Joe Musgrove 3.4 · Sean Manaea 1.1 · MacKenzie Gore 0.8
BP★ Josh Hader 36 · Luis García 20 · Robert Suarez 11 · Tim Hill 7 · Steven Wilson 5 · Nabil Crismatt 5 · Adrian Morejon 5 · Craig Stammen 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Manny Machado 29 FA-elig 1507.1 32.0 -5.9
Yu Darvish 35 FA-elig 304.2 19.0 -3.7
Ha-Seong Kim 26 pre-arb 1503.6 6.0 +7.4
Jake Cronenworth 28 pre-arb 1583.6 0.8 +12.6
Blake Snell 29 FA-elig 253.6 13.1 +0.2
Joe Musgrove 29 FA-elig 303.4 8.6 +3.9
Jurickson Profar 29 FA-elig 1522.5 8.0 +1.2
Trent Grisham 25 pre-arb 1521.7 0.7 +5.6
Luis García 35 FA-elig 641.6 3.2 +2.5
Taylor Rogers↔ MIL 31 – 421.3 0.2 +4.7
Juan Soto↔ WSN 23 arb 521.2 5.8 -1.5
Sean Manaea 30 arb 301.1 9.8 -5.8
Wil Myers 31 FA-elig 771.0 22.5 -18.9
MacKenzie Gore 23 – 160.8 0.4 +2.5
Nabil Crismatt 27 pre-arb 500.8 0.6 +2.2
Robert Suarez 31 – 450.7 6.0 -3.5
José Azocar 26 – 980.6 0.6 +1.8
Eric Hosmer↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 900.6 18.2 -15.9
Luke Voit↔ WSN 31 arb 820.5 3.3 -1.4
Tim Hill 32 arb 550.5 1.3 +0.4
Nick Martinez 31 FA-elig 470.4 6.0 -4.5
Mike Clevinger 31 FA-elig 230.4 8.0 -6.5
Brandon Drury↔ CIN 29 FA-elig 460.4 0.2 +1.2
Jorge Alfaro 29 FA-elig 820.4 2.7 -1.3
Pierce Johnson 31 arb 150.3 3.0 -1.9
Steven Wilson 27 – 500.3 0.7 +0.4
Adrian Morejon 23 pre-arb 260.2 0.7 +0.1
Nomar Mazara 27 – 550.2 0.3 +0.5
Josh Hader↔ MIL 28 arb 190.2 3.7 -3.0
Austin Nola 32 pre-arb 1100.2 0.7 -0.1
Tayler Scott 30 – 80.1 0.2 +0.1
Eguy Rosario 22 – 70.0 0.1 +0.1
Michel Baez 26 pre-arb 20.0 0.3 -0.1
Ryan Weathers 22 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Kyle Tyler 25 – 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Reiss Knehr 25 pre-arb 50.0 0.1 -0.0
José Castillo 26 arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Austin Adams 31 arb 2-0.0 0.9 -1.0
Pedro Avila 25 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Brandon Dixon 30 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Matthew Batten 27 – 15-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Luis Campusano 23 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.2 -0.4
CJ Abrams↔ WSN 21 – 46-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Ray Kerr 27 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Javy Guerra↔ TBR 26 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Dinelson Lamet↔ COL 29 arb 13-0.1 1.9 -2.3
Luis Liberato 26 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Esteury Ruiz↔ MIL 23 – 14-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Brent Rooker↔ KCR 27 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Sergio Alcántara↔ ARI 25 – 22-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Trayce Thompson↔ LAD 31 – 6-0.3 0.0 -1.3
Craig Stammen 38 FA-elig 33-0.4 4.0 -5.5
Robinson Canó↔ ATL 39 FA-elig 12-0.5 7.2 -9.0
Josh Bell↔ WSN 29 FA-elig 53-0.7 3.4 -5.8
Matt Beaty 29 – 20-0.7 0.6 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Luis García1.6
Taylor Rogers1.3
Juan Soto1.2
Sean Manaea1.1
MacKenzie Gore0.8
Robert Suarez0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Fernando Tatis Jr.6.8
Chris Paddack1.6
Mark Melancon1.1
Tommy Pham1.1
Adam Frazier0.6
Webster Rivas0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$205.9M
2023 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Manny Machado299.056$32.0MFREE AGENT
Wil Myers318.104$22.5MFREE AGENT
Yu Darvish3510.000$19.0MFREE AGENT
Eric Hosmer3210.146$18.2MFREE AGENT
Jurickson Profar297.165$8.0MFREE AGENT
Robinson Canó3917.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Craig Stammen3810.160$4.0MFREE AGENT
Nomar Mazara276.000$308kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Blake Snell295.072$13.1MFREE AGENT
Sean Manaea305.157$9.8MFREE AGENT
Joe Musgrove295.063$8.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Clevinger315.033$8.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Martinez313.002$6.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Soto233.134$5.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hader284.115$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bell295.053$3.4MFREE AGENT
Luke Voit313.169$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alfaro294.083$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dinelson Lamet294.130$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Hill323.112$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams313.015$925kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Drury295.001$233kFREE AGENT
Taylor Rogers315.145$159kFREE AGENT
José Castillo263.121$12kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Robert Suarez310.000$6.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ha-Seong Kim261.000$6.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García351.037$3.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pierce Johnson312.137$3.0MCLUBARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cronenworth282.000$757kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Grisham252.060$729kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Nola322.106$727kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon232.013$704kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wilson270.000$665kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nabil Crismatt271.033$634kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Beaty292.104$570kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Azocar260.000$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
MacKenzie Gore230.000$423kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michel Baez261.104$271kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Scott300.047$238kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Batten270.000$223kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Campusano230.095$181kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
CJ Abrams210.000$149kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Kerr270.000$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Alcántara250.168$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eguy Rosario220.000$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Avila250.004$73kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reiss Knehr250.034$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Liberato26–$69k
Esteury Ruiz230.000$63kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Dixon301.142$31kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trayce Thompson312.058$31kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Tyler250.000$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Rooker270.167$14kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra262.052$9kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weathers221.000$4kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.