RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.21× league · TAB +0.2
+0.2TAB — talent above budget21st/30
+5.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-6.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
26%dead money %12th/30
0.556win %7th/30
36.8roster fWAR12th/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$187Mpayroll $M9th/30

2025: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJackson Merrill 114GTyler Wade 19GBryce Johnson 18G
LFRamón Laureano 69GGavin Sheets 64GJason Heyward 30G
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 153GRamón Laureano 53GRyan O'Hearn 21G
SSXander Bogaerts 125GJose Iglesias 32GJake Cronenworth 13G
2BJake Cronenworth 118GJose Iglesias 40GLuis Arraez 14G
3BManny Machado 145GWill Wagner 25GJose Iglesias 24G
1BLuis Arraez 117GRyan O'Hearn 75GJake Cronenworth 13G
STARTERSNick Pivetta 3.7WARDylan Cease 3.4WARMichael King 0.8WARRandy Vásquez 0.8WARYu Darvish 0.4WAR
CElias Díaz 105GFreddy Fermin 101GMartín Maldonado 64G
DHGavin Sheets 63GRyan O'Hearn 49GLuis Arraez 29G
BULLPEN★ Robert Suarez 40svJeremiah Estrada 30hJason Adam 29hAdrian Morejon 20hMason Miller 10hWandy Peralta 4hYuki Matsui 3hDavid Morgan 1h
CElias Díaz 105 · Freddy Fermin 101 · Martín Maldonado 64
1BLuis Arraez 117 · Ryan O'Hearn 75 · Jake Cronenworth 13
2BJake Cronenworth 118 · Jose Iglesias 40 · Luis Arraez 14
3BManny Machado 145 · Will Wagner 25 · Jose Iglesias 24
SSXander Bogaerts 125 · Jose Iglesias 32 · Jake Cronenworth 13
LFRamón Laureano 69 · Gavin Sheets 64 · Jason Heyward 30
CFJackson Merrill 114 · Tyler Wade 19 · Bryce Johnson 18
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 153 · Ramón Laureano 53 · Ryan O'Hearn 21
DHGavin Sheets 63 · Ryan O'Hearn 49 · Luis Arraez 29
SPNick Pivetta 3.7 · Dylan Cease 3.4 · Michael King 0.8 · Randy Vásquez 0.8 · Yu Darvish 0.4
BP★ Robert Suarez 40 · Jeremiah Estrada 30 · Jason Adam 29 · Adrian Morejon 20 · Mason Miller 10 · Wandy Peralta 4 · Yuki Matsui 3 · David Morgan 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Fernando Tatis Jr. 26 – 1556.1 20.7 +3.4
Manny Machado 32 FA-elig 1593.8 17.1 -2.2
Nick Pivetta 32 FA-elig 313.7 2.5 +12.1
Dylan Cease 29 arb 323.4 13.8 -0.3
Xander Bogaerts 32 FA-elig 1363.2 25.5 -12.7
Jackson Merrill 22 pre-arb 1153.0 0.8 +11.1
Jake Cronenworth 31 arb 1352.9 11.3 +0.3
Adrian Morejon 26 arb 752.2 2.0 +6.9
Robert Suarez 34 arb 701.9 13.0 -5.4
Gavin Sheets 29 arb 1451.3 1.6 +3.7
Jason Adam 33 arb 651.2 4.8 +0.1
Mason Miller↔ OAK 26 pre-arb 221.1 0.2 +4.0
Jeremiah Estrada 26 pre-arb 771.0 0.8 +3.4
Luis Arraez 28 arb 1540.9 14.0 -10.5
Michael King 30 arb 150.8 4.0 -0.7
Randy Vásquez 26 pre-arb 280.8 0.7 +2.5
Stephen Kolek↔ KCR 28 – 140.8 0.3 +2.8
Ramón Laureano↔ BAL 30 arb 500.7 1.4 +1.2
Bryce Johnson 29 pre-arb 550.7 0.4 +2.2
Ryan O'Hearn↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 500.6 2.7 -0.4
Freddy Fermin↔ KCR 30 pre-arb 420.6 0.2 +2.0
Wandy Peralta 33 FA-elig 710.5 4.2 -2.3
Elias Díaz 34 – 1060.4 2.0 -0.5
Yu Darvish 38 FA-elig 150.4 21.0 -19.5
Ryan Bergert↔ KCR 25 – 110.3 0.1 +1.1
David Morgan 25 – 410.3 0.6 +0.6
Ron Marinaccio 29 pre-arb 70.2 0.3 +0.5
Brandon Lockridge↔ MIL 28 – 470.1 0.3 +0.2
Bradgley Rodriguez 21 – 70.1 0.1 +0.3
Bryan Hoeing 28 pre-arb 70.1 0.6 -0.2
Omar Cruz 26 – 20.0 0.2 -0.0
Mason McCoy 30 pre-arb 18-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Eduarniel Núñez↔ OAK 26 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Will Wagner↔ TOR 26 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Matt Waldron 28 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.4 -1.0
Connor Joe↔ CIN 32 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Kyle Hart 32 pre-arb 20-0.2 1.0 -1.6
Logan Gillaspie 28 pre-arb 3-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Tirso Ornelas 25 – 7-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Jose Iglesias 35 FA-elig 112-0.2 3.0 -3.9
JP Sears↔ OAK 29 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Sean Reynolds 27 pre-arb 19-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Yuki Matsui 29 pre-arb 61-0.3 5.5 -6.8
Tyler Wade 30 arb 60-0.3 0.9 -2.2
Oscar Gonzalez 27 – 21-0.3 0.1 -1.5
Luis Campusano 26 pre-arb 10-0.4 1.0 -2.4
Yuli Gurriel 41 – 16-0.4 – –
Alek Jacob 27 pre-arb 29-0.4 0.4 -2.1
Nestor Cortes↔ MIL 30 arb 6-0.5 4.0 -6.0
Jason Heyward 35 – 34-0.5 1.0 -3.1
Trenton Brooks 29 pre-arb 25-0.5 0.2 -2.3
Martín Maldonado 38 – 64-0.8 1.0 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Nick Pivetta3.7
Gavin Sheets1.3
Mason Miller1.1
Ramón Laureano0.7
Ryan O'Hearn0.6
Freddy Fermin0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Jurickson Profar4.3
Ha-Seong Kim2.6
Kyle Higashioka1.6
Donovan Solano0.8
Tanner Scott0.7
David Peralta0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$187.4M
2026 guaranteed
$116.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Xander Bogaerts3211.042$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M
Yu Darvish3812.146$21.0M$16.0M$15.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis Jr.266.000$20.7MFREE AGENT
Manny Machado3212.056$17.1M$25.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M
Jake Cronenworth315.000$11.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3MFREE AGENT
Yuki Matsui291.000$5.5M$5.8M$6.5MOPT-OUT$7.0MPLAYERARB 3FREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta337.168$4.2MOPT-OUT$4.5MOPT-OUT$4.5MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Jose Iglesias3510.158$3.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan O'Hearn316.002$2.7MCLUBFREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta326.166$2.5M$20.5M$14.0MOPT-OUT$18.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Elias Díaz348.088$2.0MFREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano305.159$1.4M$6.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado3814.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Heyward3515.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Yuli Gurriel419.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Luis Arraez285.121$14.0MFREE AGENT
Dylan Cease295.089$13.8MFREE AGENT
Robert Suarez343.000$13.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Adam334.132$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nestor Cortes305.094$4.0MFREE AGENT
Michael King305.004$4.0MFREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon264.140$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Sheets293.076$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wade305.058$925kFREE AGENT
Connor Joe323.136$84kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Kyle Hart320.128$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Campusano262.144$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Merrill221.000$810kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremiah Estrada261.069$776kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Vásquez260.147$673kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Hoeing282.015$585kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Morgan250.000$566kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Reynolds270.039$468kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Johnson290.164$435kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Waldron281.039$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason McCoy300.065$393kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Jacob270.130$381kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gillaspie280.110$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Marinaccio292.027$337kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Kolek281.000$299kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Lockridge280.019$268kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trenton Brooks290.035$208kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Fermin301.165$206kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Miller261.166$192kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Omar Cruz26–$168k
Tirso Ornelas25–$168k
Bradgley Rodriguez210.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Bergert25–$145k
Oscar Gonzalez272.133$140kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JP Sears292.081$97kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Wagner260.049$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduarniel Núñez260.000$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.