SDP⇄TBR

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$59.2M net +15.9

received +$56.0M+$56.0M ± $33M expected surplus · +$57.6M realized received 6.2 ± 4 expected · 15.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2020 odds 95% → 98% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy PhamOF·32y·R/R

+$55.0M+$55.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 5.1± 3 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.66/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jake Cronenworth1B/2B·26y·L/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$60.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 14.8

Prior

#208 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$59.2M net -15.9

received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $45M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 8.1 ± 6 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2020 odds 85% → 62% (-23 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hunter RenfroeOF·28y·R/R

+$26.2M+$26.2M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 4.9± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Xavier Edwards2B/SS·20y·S/R

+$6.4M+$6.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #78.5 prospect (Baseball America #85 (2020) / MLB Pipeline #72 (2020)) → 0.45/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Esteban Quiroz2B·28y·L/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.