ATL⇄SDP

ATLATL John Hart net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Casey KellyP·26y·R/R

+$6.8M+$6.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#30 overall draft pick → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ricardo Rodríguez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$2.4M net -0.4

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $29M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Christian BethancourtC·24y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

Composite #69.0 pedigree (Baseball America #69 (2014)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.8/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.67/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.