SDP⇄OAK

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$11.2M net +1.3

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $32M expected surplus · +$15.2M realized received 5.2 ± 4 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew PomeranzP·27y·R/L

+$10.9M+$10.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$17.6M 2.9± 2 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.57/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jabari BlashOF·26y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#252 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

José TorresP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$11.2M net -1.3

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 2.0 ± 2 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yonder Alonso1B·29y·L/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.33/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Marc RzepczynskiP·30y·L/L

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.