CLE⇄SDP

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$12.8M net +1.8

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $33M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2015 odds 36% → 42% (+6.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Abraham AlmonteOF·26y·B/R

+$12.0M+$12.0M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 2.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$12.8M net -1.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2015 odds 4% → 3% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marc RzepczynskiP·29y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.