CIN⇄CLE⇄SDP

CINCIN Dick Williams net +$20.8M net +2.1

received +$75.2M+$75.2M ± $28M expected surplus · +$26.4M realized received 5.5 ± 4 expected · 3.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2019 odds 12% → 11% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trevor BauerP·28y·R/R

+$75.1M+$75.1M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$26.4M 5.5± 4 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.51/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.73/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net −$18.4M net -0.8

received +$54.4M+$54.4M ± $56M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 10.2 ± 7 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2019 odds 68% → 70% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Franmil ReyesDH/OF·23y·R/R

+$21.9M+$21.9M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 4.2± 6 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.76/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Logan AllenP·22y·R/L

+$15.5M+$15.5M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

Composite #74.0 prospect (MLB Pipeline #74 (2019)) → 0.46/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Yasiel PuigOF·28y·R/R

+$14.6M+$14.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 2.0± 1 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.00/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Scott MossP·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#108 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Victor Nova

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$2.4M net -1.3

received +$30.4M+$30.4M ± $42M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 5.6 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Taylor TrammellOF·21y·L/L

+$30.2M+$30.2M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 5.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #24.5 prospect (Baseball America #33 (2019) / MLB Pipeline #16 (2019)) → 1.02/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.