SDP⇄TOR

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$8.0M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hansel Rodriguez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net −$8.0M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $11M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2016 odds 46% → 44% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

B. J. UptonOF·31y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.