SDP⇄CIN

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$3.2M net +0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2025 odds 25% → 28% (+2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew MooreP·25y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#414 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Nick Krall net −$3.2M net -0.6

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $13M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2025 odds 16% → 14% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Connor Joe1B/OF·32y·R/R

+$4.4M+$4.4M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.