SDP⇄CIN

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$1.6M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $9M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2022 odds 38% → 41% (+2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon Drury2B/3B·29y·R/R

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Nick Krall net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Victor AcostaSS·18y·S/R

+$8.5M+$8.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

MLB Pipeline intl top-50 #17 signee (2021) → 0.50/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.