RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.27× league · TAB -0.9
-0.9TAB — talent above budget15th/30
+6.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-9.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
47%dead money %21st/30
0.438win %24th/30
17.2roster fWAR30th/30
+24surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$35Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFManuel Margot 123GFranchy Cordero 25GMatt Szczur 21G
LFJosé Pirela 68GMatt Szczur 49GAllen Córdoba 43G
RFHunter Renfroe 120GJabari Blash 33GMatt Szczur 18G
SSErick Aybar 99GYangervis Solarte 28GAllen Córdoba 28G
2BCarlos Asuaje 84GYangervis Solarte 79GJosé Pirela 7G
3BCory Spangenberg 96GRyan Schimpf 50GYangervis Solarte 22G
1BWil Myers 154GYangervis Solarte 8GHéctor Sánchez 6G
STARTERSJhoulys Chacín 2.7WARClayton Richard 2.2WARLuis Perdomo 1.9WARDinelson Lamet 1.2WARJarred Cosart 0.2WAR
CAustin Hedges 115GLuis Torrens 51GHéctor Sánchez 25G
DHJosé Pirela 3GYangervis Solarte 2GHéctor Sánchez 2G
BULLPEN★ Brad Hand 21svKirby Yates 20hCraig Stammen 11hPhil Maton 8hBuddy Baumann 4hJosé Torres 3hKevin Quackenbush 1hMiguel Díaz 0h
CAustin Hedges 115 · Luis Torrens 51 · Héctor Sánchez 25
1BWil Myers 154 · Yangervis Solarte 8 · Héctor Sánchez 6
2BCarlos Asuaje 84 · Yangervis Solarte 79 · José Pirela 7
3BCory Spangenberg 96 · Ryan Schimpf 50 · Yangervis Solarte 22
SSErick Aybar 99 · Yangervis Solarte 28 · Allen Córdoba 28
LFJosé Pirela 68 · Matt Szczur 49 · Allen Córdoba 43
CFManuel Margot 123 · Franchy Cordero 25 · Matt Szczur 21
RFHunter Renfroe 120 · Jabari Blash 33 · Matt Szczur 18
DHJosé Pirela 3 · Yangervis Solarte 2 · Héctor Sánchez 2
SPJhoulys Chacín 2.7 · Clayton Richard 2.2 · Luis Perdomo 1.9 · Dinelson Lamet 1.2 · Jarred Cosart 0.2
BP★ Brad Hand 21 · Kirby Yates 20 · Craig Stammen 11 · Phil Maton 8 · Buddy Baumann 4 · José Torres 3 · Kevin Quackenbush 1 · Miguel Díaz 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jhoulys Chacín 29 FA-elig 342.7 1.8 +7.3
Manuel Margot 22 pre-arb 1262.5 0.5 +7.8
Clayton Richard 33 FA-elig 322.2 1.8 +5.7
Luis Perdomo 24 pre-arb 291.9 0.5 +5.8
Austin Hedges 24 pre-arb 1201.9 0.5 +5.7
José Pirela 27 arb 831.8 0.3 +5.7
Brad Hand 27 FA-elig 721.7 1.4 +4.2
Trevor Cahill↔ KCR 29 FA-elig 111.6 0.9 +4.4
Wil Myers 26 arb 1551.5 4.5 +0.7
Yangervis Solarte 29 arb 1281.5 2.6 +2.4
Dinelson Lamet 24 – 211.2 0.4 +3.7
Brandon Maurer↔ KCR 26 arb 420.7 1.2 +1.3
Hunter Renfroe 25 pre-arb 1220.7 0.5 +1.9
Matt Szczur↔ CHC 27 arb 1040.7 0.5 +1.8
Carlos Asuaje 25 pre-arb 890.7 0.3 +1.9
Cory Spangenberg 26 pre-arb 1290.7 0.5 +1.7
Kirby Yates↔ ANA 30 pre-arb 610.6 0.5 +1.5
Franchy Cordero 22 – 300.5 0.1 +1.5
Christian Villanueva 26 pre-arb 120.5 0.0 +1.6
Craig Stammen 33 FA-elig 600.3 0.9 +0.2
Dusty Coleman 30 pre-arb 270.3 0.1 +0.8
Jarred Cosart 27 arb 70.2 0.6 +0.0
Kyle McGrath 24 pre-arb 170.1 0.2 +0.3
Jordan Lyles↔ COL 26 FA-elig 50.1 0.4 -0.1
Ryan Buchter↔ KCR 30 arb 420.0 0.3 -0.2
José Torres 23 pre-arb 620.0 0.5 -0.4
Tim Melville↔ MIN 27 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.0
José Ruiz 22 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Jake Esch 27 – 10.0 0.5 -0.5
Carter Capps 26 arb 11-0.0 1.0 -1.1
Ryan Schimpf 29 pre-arb 53-0.0 0.5 -0.7
Zach Lee 25 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Kyle Lloyd 26 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Rocky Gale 29 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Dillon Overton↔ SEA 25 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Travis Jankowski 26 pre-arb 27-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Buddy Baumann 29 pre-arb 23-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Christian Bethancourt 25 arb 8-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Phil Maton 24 – 46-0.3 0.3 -1.4
Kevin Quackenbush 28 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Héctor Sánchez 27 FA-elig 75-0.3 0.8 -1.9
Jabari Blash 27 pre-arb 61-0.4 0.2 -1.5
Luis Sardinas 24 – 29-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Cory Mazzoni 27 pre-arb 6-0.4 0.1 -1.4
José A. Váldez↔ ANA 27 – 13-0.4 – –
Erick Aybar 33 FA-elig 108-0.4 1.8 -3.1
Travis Wood↔ KCR 30 FA-elig 12-0.5 1.2 -2.8
Chase d'Arnaud↔ ATL 30 FA-elig 22-0.5 0.4 -2.1
Miguel Díaz 22 pre-arb 31-0.8 0.5 -3.1
Allen Córdoba 21 pre-arb 100-1.0 0.5 -3.8
Jered Weaver 34 FA-elig 9-1.1 3.0 -6.9
Luis Torrens 21 pre-arb 56-1.3 0.5 -4.9

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Jhoulys Chacín2.7
Trevor Cahill1.6
Dinelson Lamet1.2
Matt Szczur0.7
Kirby Yates0.6
Franchy Cordero0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Drew Pomeranz2.4
Adam Rosales1.7
Fernando Rodney0.8
Jon Jay0.5
Derek Norris0.4
Edwin Jackson0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$35.4M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Jered Weaver3411.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Clayton Richard336.163$1.8MFREE AGENT
Jhoulys Chacín296.054$1.8MFREE AGENT
Erick Aybar3310.086$1.8MFREE AGENT
Travis Wood306.004$1.2MFREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill297.098$917kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Wil Myers263.104$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yangervis Solarte293.000$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Hand273.092$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Maurer263.089$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Capps264.007$988kARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen335.160$900kFREE AGENT
Héctor Sánchez274.018$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarred Cosart273.113$566kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles265.020$418kFREE AGENT
José Pirela273.002$345kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (36)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Ryan Schimpf291.008$546kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski261.047$544kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perdomo241.000$544kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bethancourt252.014$542kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hedges240.166$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Renfroe250.012$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Baumann291.125$536kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Margot220.012$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Torres230.012$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Esch27–$535k
Miguel Díaz220.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Córdoba210.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Torrens210.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Szczur271.134$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Spangenberg262.028$476kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Yates302.025$457kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dinelson Lamet240.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase d'Arnaud302.045$377kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Maton240.000$330kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Buchter301.010$322kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Asuaje250.012$301kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jabari Blash271.023$237kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Quackenbush282.115$205kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McGrath240.078$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Sardinas241.088$145kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franchy Cordero220.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusty Coleman300.021$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Mazzoni270.093$61kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Overton250.032$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Gale290.033$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Lee250.011$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Villanueva261.014$41kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Melville270.015$27kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lloyd260.003$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ruiz220.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Váldez27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.